The 2023-24 Champions League draw is out and, as always, there are plenty of talking points — and betting takeaways — to dive into now that the dust has settled.
Before we get into the best bets to make after the draw, we’ll start with the biggest loser of the lottery: Newcastle.
The Saudi-backed club was expected to be a trendy dark horse pick to make a run in its triumphant return to European football, but the Magpies were placed in perhaps the best Champions League group in recent history with Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan.
It’s a tough break for those who invested in Newcastle pre-flop, and it’ll be interesting to see if their price begins to drift as we get closer to Matchweek 1.
With that out of the way, we’ll take a gander at a few teams that caught some good fortune with their draw and how to bet them.
Atletico Madrid (29/1, FanDuel)
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid has been known as a defend-and-counter team for a decade, but Atleti has shown a new side of late.
Not only did they open things up down the stretch last year, but Los Colchoneros have come out of the blocks hot with 10 goals scored in their first three matches in La Liga with Alvaro Morata and Memphis Depay leading the way with three apiece.
Simeone has a great reputation as a tournament manager and will be licking his chops after seeing his team get put in a group with Lazio, Celtic and Feyenoord.
Atleti are a great bet to bounce back after disappointing in last year’s Champions League.
A modern-day football factory, RB Leipzig was placed in a group with tournament favorite Manchester City, but the other two teams in Group B, Red Star Belgrade and Young Boys, are massive long shots.
Leipzig should be able to get through to the knockout stage without much fuss, even if its likely to finish second.
Aside from a good draw, another reason to back Die Roten Bullen is they’ve proven to be a club that gets better as the season progresses.
Leipzig has one of the best talent pipelines in the entire world, and because it has so many promising young players it can take some time before this team hits its stride.
And while that can cause some nervy moments in the early stages of this competition, the upside is that Leipzig should be hitting the high notes by the time we get into the business end of the competition.
Real Sociedad to win Group D (+550, FanDuel)
Group D, which features Inter Milan, Real Sociedad, Benfica and RB Salzburg, could go in a million different directions.
Milan is the odds-on favorite to win the set at -120 odds, but its a pretty lukewarm favorite when you consider that a teams such as Arsenal, PSG, Manchester City or Bayern Munich would be a prohibitive price to top this table.
With a beatable favorite at the top, Group D is the perfect place to try to get to the window with a big price and Real Sociedad ticks a lot of the boxes you’re looking for in an underdog.
Sociedad finished in fourth place in La Liga in 2022-23, led by a defense that was one of the best units in all of Europe.
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Erreala conceded just 35 goals in 38 matches and its 33.4 expected goals against suggest it was actually a tiny bit better than that impressive tally.
In fact, only four teams in Europe’s Big 5 Leagues (Manchester City, Napoli, Barcelona and Roma) allowed fewer expected goals than Sociedad did last season.
Sociedad is absolutely live to win this group with that kind of defensive form.
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