Marcus Freeman set for failure

Notre Dame football enters its second year under head coach Marcus Freeman with high hopes. 

Sure, the Freeman era in South Bend began disastrously, as the Irish started last season with back-to-back losses against Ohio State and Marshall.

But the Irish settled in, winning nine of 11 down the stretch, including wins over ranked BYU, Syracuse, and Clemson. 

But what can we expect from the Irish this year? 

Specifically, how many games will the Irish win? 

And, can the Irish overcome their win total set by Vegas oddsmakers?

Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees left for Alabama and took quarterback Taylor Buchner with him. Drew Pyne is gone, too.

Honestly, good riddance. 

I love that Freeman grabbed Sam Hartman in the portal.

Hartman was electric at Wake Forest, compiling over 12,000 passing yards and 100 touchdowns over his five years as the Demon Deacons starting quarterback. 

He brings five years of FBS experience and a strong arm to South Bend, and that might be exactly what the Irish need. 

Hartman is surrounded by two NFL-ready tackles (Joe Alt, Blake Fisher) and a deep, accomplished running back corps (Audric Estimé, Logan Diggs).

The wide receiver room is thin, but Hartman can elevate the guys around him. 

Eight starters return on the defensive side, including the top four tacklers, and the team should get better in Freeman’s second year – Freeman is a defensive-minded coach, after all. 

The linebacking unit is elite behind JD Bertrand and Jack Kiser, as is the secondary behind Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart. 

The key will be the defensive line, which is far from elite.

They lost three veterans in the defensive trench and will need a combination of second-tier guys and transfers to step up in that area. 

The Irish were a top-30 team against the pass by Expected Points Added (EPA) per play allowed, but they fell to 103rd against the rush.

Freeman will need to improve the rush defense this year, and I’m skeptical he can. 

The Irish are a fringe National Title contender, but everything depends on their schedule. 

Notre Dame has coin-flip matchups against NC State (road), Ohio State (home), Duke (road), Louisville (road), USC (home) and Clemson (road).

The Action Network projects every one of those spreads to fall within one score, so they could easily win or drop every single one of those games.

The Action Network’s Analytics team projects Notre Dame for 8.9 wins in the upcoming season, but it’s a high-variance projection with how many close games there are.

If Notre Dame succeeds, it’ll be because the defense is top-10 overall, and Hartman improves the offense significantly. 

Betting on College Football?

If Notre Dame fails, it’ll be because the defense can’t stop the run, and the Irish can’t win the close games. 

Ultimately, I’m leaning toward the latter.

The Irish have too many brutal games on their schedule, and too many things could go wrong.

What if Hartman doesn’t acclimate to a higher level of play?

What if every opponent runs all over Notre Dame’s weak defensive line?

What if they can’t hold off Ohio State or USC at home?

There’s an Under 8.5 Wins available at plus-money at Caesars.

With a high-variance team, taking the favorable juice is generally wise (and profitable).

The play: Under 8.5 wins (+115) at Caesars