The Giants did nothing but exceed expectations last season.
Brian Daboll was masterful. He coaxed the most out of Daniel Jones and a group of weak pass catchers, and nobody was better at making in-game adjustments.
Moreover, Daboll and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale survived an onslaught of injuries in the secondary.
I think Daboll will be one of the league’s best head coaches, and I imagine he’ll be able to overachieve year-in and year-out.
Unfortunately, I doubt he’ll achieve Vegas’ expectations this year.
Vegas oddsmakers have set the Giants’ win total at 7.5, and I’m betting they fall short.
The Giants finished last year with nine wins and a playoff victory.
But how much luck did it take to accomplish that?
A lot.
The Giants were an outstanding 8-4-1 in one-score games, generating close victories thanks to a +8 turnover differential in one-score games.
One-score games and turnover differential are highly variable and not predictive of future results. Instead, we can expect the Giants’ close game and turnover luck to regress to the mean.
Another high-variance metric used to project regression is red-zone performance. The Giants were among the best teams in the NFL in red-zone conversion rates on offense and defense. We can and should expect regression in both areas.
Let’s look at more predictive metrics.
Betting on the NFL?
The Giants finished last season with a negative point differential and a negative mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Giants had the fifth-highest time of possession while trailing last season.
By those numbers, the Giants were a below-average team and should project as one in 2023.
The flip side to this argument is that Daboll and his staff are good enough coaches to consistently exceed expectations by performing in high-leverage situations.
But I find it hard to believe the Giants will re-create last season’s magic, given they didn’t make many roster upgrades (outside of tight end Darren Waller) and will face a significantly tougher schedule.
By Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 2023 Giants will face the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis projects that the Giants will face the toughest set of defenses, including nine games against top-nine pass defenses from last season (Eagles twice, Cowboys twice, Patriots, 49ers, Jets, Saints, Bills).
The Giants went 2-7 against teams with a winning record last season, so the projected increase in strength of schedule doesn’t bode well.
The schedule also got harder situationally.
The Giants play three games on “Monday Night Football,” meaning they’ll play three games on a short week. They also play four games in a five-week stretch where their opponents have over six days of rest.
The Giants are 28th in the NFL in net rest days (-9).
Football Outsiders projects the Giants for 6.4 wins this year, while The Action Network’s Sean Koerner says he projects “a ton” of value on Under 7.5 wins for the Giants.
Ultimately, I think we see the Giants regress in a big way in Daboll’s second year as head coach. The Giants will not recreate their close-game and turnover luck, and the schedule is far too difficult to be bullish.
The Play: New York Giants Under 7.5 Wins (-115) at BetMGM
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