In the last of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season, Fantasy Insanity discusses how to practice patience, after your draft and into the early parts of the season.
There are times when you need to actually jerk the wheel.
If someone blindly merges into your lane on the freeway, you might want to quickly get out of the way. If a bad driver pulls out in front of you, evasive maneuvers might be required. When trying to loose a tail during your super-secret spy missions, you’ll need to yank your sedan into a narrow alley to escape.
That is true in fantasy sports as well. There are times when a player is just so bad, or so good, you need to act immediately to drop or acquire them.
Not every situation is built for yanking the wheel, though. Sometimes a smooth transition is the best option. Sometimes, there is an open lane beside you to slowly glide into while you watch a rogue vehicle drift in your direction.
Week 1 routinely is a parade of fantasy drifters. There are going to be highly drafted players who do next to nothing, and nobody players who pepper to top of the leaderboard. We know that because it happens virtually every year.
And virtually every year there will be fantasy managers who overreact to those anomalies. They might think about benching top-tier talent just because they produced an opening week dud — or worse (though better for you), cut them. Or spend recklessly from their waiver budget for a surprise first-week wonder.
You wouldn’t do that after one unexpected game in midseason, right? Week 1 is no different, it just comes earlier.
Need an example of how deceiving Week 1 production can be? Take Carson Wentz last season. He was the QB3 in Week 1. He followed it up with a QB5 rank in Week 2. Those who were bullish on Wentz felt emboldened. Those with, say Trevor Lawrence or Kirk Cousins, QBs 14 and QB18 respectively after two games, might have dropped one of them to get Wentz.
Wentz finished QB31, while Lawrence was QB8 and Cousins was QB7.
It could be a player thought to be an OK pick who does well in Week 1 (such as Michael Thomas, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jameis Winston last year), or someone on the fringe who jumps onto radars (and rosters), or an unexpected opening-week showcase (Dontrell Hilliard, Devin Duvernay, Robbie Anderson né Chosen).
The worst are when early results appear to confirm preseason expectations, only to be foiled as the season progresses. For example: A.J. Dillon turning in an RB9 performance in Week 1 compared to Aaron Jones’ RB29. Ah-ha! So the tide is shifting! Only, Dillon ended RB32 and Jones was RB9.
Lesson: Beware the Week 1 warriors. Alas, that isn’t our only worry. You also have to avoid panic over top picks who face-plant to start the season. Last year, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Garrett Wilson and CeeDee Lamb, among others, had disappointing first weeks, only to rebound.
So when a fantasy player drifts into a lane you didn’t expect in Week 1, don’t panic and jerk the wheel. You might send your roster into a tailspin.
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