It’s hard to believe we are already a month into the season.
It still feels like we are learning about these teams, but at least we have three weeks of data to sift through.
My focus heading into Week 4 is to lean on the information we have at our disposal.
Let’s dive into my favorite plays this week on PrizePicks.
James Cook more than 56.5 rushing yards
Based on some advanced metrics, the Bills are the offense in the best position to gain yards on the ground this week.
Their offense is ranked 10th in rush DVOA and fourth in rush EPA, while the Dolphins defense is ranked 26th in rush DVOA and 30th in rush EPA.
Targeting running backs that are home favorites has historically paid dividends and Cook is off to a tremendous start this season.
He might not get the work near the goal line, but he’s the lead back in-between the 20s.
Through the first three games, he has 44 carries for 267 rushing yards (6.1 yards per attempt).
As long as the Bills don’t find themselves in a hole early, they should lean heavily on the ground game in this matchup.
Ja’Marr Chase more than 82.5 receiving yards
We’ve seen it each of the first three weeks — teams cannot run on the Titans.
Jamaal Williams, Joshua Kelley, and Jerome Ford all struggled on the ground against Tennessee.
There’s a good chance the Titans have the best run defense in the league and they are currently top four in rush DVOA and rush EPA.
Teams are certainly willing to throw the ball in this matchup and as we saw last week, the Bengals aren’t scared of a pass-heavy game script.
Joe Burrow threw the ball 49 times against the Bengals and almost all of that came out of shotgun sets.
This all leads me to believe Chase will have a big day given the matchup and the fact that he’s Burrow’s favorite target.
He’s also running a career-high 32% of his routes from the slot, which is leading to easier pitch and catches.
Dameon Pierce less than 47.5 rushing yards
It’s been a rough start to the season for Pierce.
He has yet to rush for 40 yards in any of the first three games and he has not been involved in the passing game.
It’s also worth noting that he’s ceded some early-down work to Devin Singletary, who has 20 rushing attempts on the season.
Even before we factor in the matchup, less than 47.5 rushing yards for Pierce looks enticing.
Now, this week the Texans square off against the Steelers, who held Josh Jacobs to 3.6 yards per carry last week.
Houston could find themselves trailing in this game and even if that’s not the case, their offense is ranked 30th in rush DVOA and 27th in rush EPA this season.
Betting on the NFL?
Puka Nacua more than 6.5 receptions
Nacua is coming off of his worst game of the season, but he still caught 5-of-7 targets for 72 yards.
His numbers through the first three games of his career are video-game like, as he’s racked up 30 receptions for 338 yards.
Cooper Kupp is still out, so he should continue to operate as Matthew Stafford’s top target.
A matchup against the Colts should be perfect for his route tree, as they love to play zone coverage with two deep safeties.
Teams have consistently targeted the Colts in the middle of the field and on underneath routes, which is exactly where Nacua does most of his damage.
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