The Mets traded the rest of the 2023 season, such as it was, for two rookie-level minor league ballplayers. And now, with the trade of the Hall-of-Fame bound Max Scherzer on Saturday, they are diminishing their chances in 2024, as well.
Someone up high with the Mets mentioned in a very candid conversation within the last two days that they are a “team in transition” — which is a nice way of saying they felt big changes are nothing short of necessary.
The Mets hope to redo their front office with a new leader this winter (David Stearns, are you reading?), and they are doing their best now to set that leader up for a better future. As for the present, well, just check the sorry standings.
Give them this: When they see an issue — and a team with an all-time record payroll having to sell to the small-scale Marlins, as the Mets did with David Robertson, clearly shows something is drastically wrong — they act. Steve Cohen footed the bill of nearly half-a-billion dollars, but he’s a guy who plays the percentages.
I doubt Cohen relies on Fangraphs, which still had the Mets at about a 17 percent chance to make the playoffs at last look. But he does rely on data, and nobody knows the numbers better than Cohen, who somehow made $20 billion plus in equities, which are about the least equitable thing on Earth.
Anyway, Cohen saw a team that almost always took a step back whenever it took a step forward, a team that underperformed at almost every spot — except for Robertson, of course, who was brilliant this season and now is a Marlin. Mets higher-ups have described the team as a car that starts and stops, just sputtering along. That’s not what you’d expect from the best-paid group of ballplayers ever assembled.
Cohen’s stated goal upon buying the Mets for $2.4 billion was to win a World Series within “three to five years.” If next year is in jeopardy, as it may be, that puts a lot of pressure on the 2025 squad for Cohen’s fifth season in orange and blue.
While Scherzer was pummeled in a few very bad outings this season — including one at Fenway Park on July 22, in which he gave up four home runs, including one to a .160 hitter — generally, he has been pretty good, and other teams have coveted both him and Justin Verlander. Even as he turned 39 this past week, Scherzer seems to have adjusted to the pitch clock and the sticky-stuff crackdown, to the point at which he has been fairly dominant at least two out of every three starts.
The Scherzer deal to Texas, which is bringing shortstop/center field prospect Luisangel Acuña (Ronald Acuña’s brother) had a soap-operatic effect. It took some extra negotiation because Scherzer had a no-trade clause and a 2024 option, and he loved the idea of being in New York and having spring training in Port St. Lucie, a 45 minute drive from his Jupiter, Fla., home, but it got done
The Mets’ co-ace, Verlander (who’s tied with Scherzer as the highest-salaried player ever), has been even better, with a 1.46 ERA over the past six starts. Scouts have drooled over Verlander’s performance, and he would appear to be next to go. Verlander seems particularly close to Cohen, but at this point, friendship isn’t really a major factor. There are no guarantees at the trade deadline, of course, and Verlander has made it clear publicly that he loves it in New York, so maybe he would turn down a potential trade.
Of course, Verlander may love the City (and I believe he does), but will he want to be on a team “in transition”? That certainly is no certainty. His old Astros team would seem to be a logical landing spot if he ultimately is convinced the Mets are transitioning. While the Astros only wanted to give Verlander a one-year deal over the winter, they may feel they are in need now, especially with the Rangers looking great and acquiring his running mate Scherzer.
The Mets could, of course, try to do a quick reversal, and the free-agent pitching market will be especially strong this offseason. Even if they can’t get Shohei Ohtani (and Mets people don’t seem especially optimistic about the likelihood of Ohtani leaving the West Coast), there are Julio Urias, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, and potentially Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman (not a likely target for the Mets). But the belief, based on signs and words at least for now, is that the Mets now are more interested in the future beyond 2024.
Useful outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham, reliever Brooks Raley and other veterans whose contracts are up this year or next, should prepare for trades. But Verlander is the other big one who could go. And based on his recent performance (plus Cohen’s ability to pay down the deal), the Mets should be able to get even more for Verlander than they are getting for Scherzer.
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