In early-season college basketball games, I rely heavily on returning production.
Teams with more continuity will generally beat teams with less continuity in November and December.
I’m making an exception for Arizona-Duke.
The line is a touch high for two reasons.
First, KenPom projects this spread as Duke -3, giving us some value on Arizona +5.
Second, the schematic matchup is solid for Arizona. Arizona likes to push the pace and run the floor in transition.
In the half-court, the Wildcats run a free-flowing pick-and-roll offense emphasizing the Oumar Ballo post-up game.
By points per possession allowed, Duke was a below-average transition, pick-and-roll and post-up defense last year.
And while Duke lost only one starter, the Blue Devils also lost their best interior defender, Dereck Lively II.
Kyle Filipowski is a stud, but he’s a poor post-up defender and might get eaten alive by Ballo.
Conversely, Duke is a slower-paced offense emphasizing ball screens and second-chance points.
By PPP allowed, Arizona was an above-average ball-screen defense and was above-average at preventing second-chance points.
The Wildcats lost four starters, but their incoming transfer pieces fit this matchup well.
North Carolina transfer Caleb Love was an above-average ball-screen defender last season, not to mention a Duke killer.
Betting on College Basketball?
San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson is an excellent post-defender who can battle down low with Filipowski.
Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley is an athletic perimeter defender who can battle with Duke’s deadly backcourt.
If Duke controls the pace and keeps Arizona out of transition, my handicap could be very wrong.
But it’s hard to keep Tommy Lloyd-led teams from running the floor.
So, as it stands, I love this matchup for the ’Cats.
The play: Arizona +5.
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