The Dallas Cowboys are heavily favored against the Seattle Seahawks, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some NFL action on the underdog.
Let’s dive in and pick some DFS winners for “Thursday Night Football” from the PrizePicks lobby.
DK Metcalf more than 59.0 receiving yards
I am pretty low on Seattle’s offense and pretty high on the Dallas defense.
Metcalf has been getting targeted heavily lately, receiving at least nine targets in five of the last six weeks, but the production has just been inefficient.
Geno Smith (elbow) has been playing hurt, which probably explains his regression from last season. But Pete Carroll said Wednesday that his quarterback seems to be at full health and his performance in practice showed a “big difference” from last week.
And despite the recent elite play of the Cowboys’ secondary, there could not be a better stylistic matchup for Metcalf on Thursday.
The Cowboys play the fourth-most man coverage and the second-most single-high coverage in the NFL. Metcalf’s production hasn’t been great this year (likely due to Smith’s poor play), but the volume and opportunity have been incredible.
Smith is completing a miserable 54% of passes this year against man single-high, per Fantasy Points. But he was elite last year, completing 63% of passes with a 112 QB rating and a gun-slinging 21% deep-throw rate, an area where he had six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Metcalf is by far the Seahawks’ alpha receiver against this type of coverage
In 2022, he had an incredible 55% air-yard (AY) share and a 37% target share against it. For comparison, there was no other Seahawks receiver with an AY share north of 18% or a target share higher than 15%.
Not much has changed this year, with Metcalf having a 52% AY share and a 33% target share.
Metcalf has a 45% first-read rate from Smith against man coverage (single-high), which would lead the NFL against all coverages. Metcalf’s overall first-read rate is 31%, so Smith is certainly glued to him more under these scenarios.
CeeDee Lamb more than 0.5 rushing yards
Since the Cowboys’ bye week, Lamb has received a carry in four of his five games played and I don’t think that’s a coincidence.
The Cowboys have had extremely positive scripts in each game he had a carry, and they were in a neutral one against the Eagles when he didn’t get one.
Dallas is anywhere from a 8.5- to 9.5-point favorite Thursday against Seattle.
Betting on the NFL?
When Dallas gets its lead and starts to chew clock, I expect them to give Lamb a carry at some point – another way to get its best player the football without risking a clock stoppage.
I like his odds of gaining a measly yard if/when he receives that opportunity. In fact, he has covered a yard in five of six games when he has received at least one carry this season.
Tyler Lockett under 22.5 receiving yards in first 2 receptions
Doubling down on the Metcalf theory here, Lockett is the Seahawks’ second or third option against man coverage dating back to the beginning of last season.
Stream the game live on Thursday night on Amazon Prime Video
Over the last two seasons, he has the lowest yard-per-target average of any primary Seattle pass-catcher.
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