While college football takes center stage on Championship Saturday, there are a few mid-major battles on the hardwood in the Northeast that could introduce the nation to a few potential Cinderellas come March.
Saint Joseph’s vs. Temple, 7:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)
This Big Five rivalry has gone the Owls’ way in recent years with Temple toppling St. Joe’s in five of the past six meetings. But in the past week, the Hawks have taken flight.
St. Joe’s suddenly has the look of the vintage Jameer Nelson-Delonte West teams of yesteryear. The Hawks took Kentucky to overtime at Rupp Arena last week and then drilled Villanova on the road by 13 points on Wednesday, winning there for the first time since 2004.
The St. Joe’s backcourt is why they’re ascending this season. Erik Reynolds II is a flamethrower from deep (44.3 percent) and Lynn Greer III continues to improve in his second year running the point for Billy Lange.
Speaking of Lange, it appears he’s finally turned the corner. After slogging through a disappointing 35-76 start to his tenure on Hawk Hill, his Hawks are 8-3 in their last 11 dating back to last season and have the look of an NCAA Tournament team. Bart Torvik rates them as the nation’s 45th-best offense, KenPom ranks their defense 36th.
Temple flat out can’t shoot (38.1 percent, 336th), so the Owls are likely to find themselves in deep water against a red-hot SJU offense.
This may be the last time we see SJU installed as such a favorite until Atlantic 10 Conference play tips in January. I would play the Hawks here.
Recommendation: Saint Joseph’s -6.5
Yale vs. Vermont, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
At first glance, this is a mildly interesting mid-major matchup of New England schools with decent records. But by year’s end, I think both of these teams will be vying for their respective conference’s automatic bid to the Big Dance.
Yale is the highest-rated team in the Ivy by KenPom, Bart Torvik and ShotQuality. And Vermont is neck and neck with UMass Lowell in a handful of rating systems in the America East.
The difference is that Vermont’s overall perception has been dinged because of recent losses to Liberty and Bradley.
I think those two losses to quality opponents, one at a neutral site and another on the road, will push this spread closer to a pick ’em by tip, and that’s good news for Vermont backers.
The Catamounts alway have been a solid bet as a home favorite. Among qualifying teams (at least 40 games), they rank as the sixth-most profitable home favorite dating back to 2003.
Patrick Gym is a home-court advantage I love to play when it’s hovering around a single possession, and that’s what we find here.
Betting on College Basketball?
On the floor, Yale has a major advantage on the glass when at full strength. Matt Knowling and the 7-footer Danny Wolf could victimize a traditionally undersized UVM starting lineup that doesn’t start a player over 6-8.
As a result, UVM rarely collects offensive boards, but they could catch a break here. Knowling is dealing with a groin injury and is listed as day-to-day.
If he is limited or sits, I think Ileri Ayo-Faleye will be able to hold his own as he did against Saint Louis during the Myrtle Beach Invitational (eight rebounds).
With Yale’s rebounding advantage neutralized or at least minimized, Vermont’s ball-screen-centric motion offense should win the day.
Recommendation: Vermont -1 (play to -4)
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