There are officially four weeks left in the NFL season.
While PrizePicks will continue to put out projections for the playoffs, there won’t be nearly as many options.
The Week 15 schedule features games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. For this article, we will focus on the 1 p.m. ET and 4 p.m. ET games.
Here are my four favorite picks in the PrizePicks lobby for Sunday games:
Tyler Allgeier (Falcons) more than 30.5 rushing yards
You might be thinking: Did something happen to Bijan Robinson? Nope, he’s perfectly healthy and playing his best football of the season.
However, there should be room for both running backs to eat at the table in a matchup against the Panthers, who are ranked last in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA.
Allgeier has averaged 3.5 yards per carry and should be even more efficient in this particular matchup. Despite playing the RB2 role, he has at least eight rushing attempts in nine straight games.
With this being an important game for Atlanta’s chances of winning the division, I expect Arthur Smith to lean heavily on the run.
Joe Flacco (Browns) more than 226.5 passing yards
The Browns had been a run-first team all season but have let Flacco throw it all over the yard in his first two starts.
He completed 23-of-44 passes for 254 yards against the Rams in Week 13, and then went 26-of-45 for 311 yards against the Jaguars last week.
We could see him drop back a bunch once again against Chicago as the Bears have been one of the best pass-funnel matchups in the NFL.
On the season, Chicago is ranked 27th in dropback EPA and third in rush EPA.
We normally have to worry about weather in Cleveland this time of year, but it should be around 50 degrees with no rain at kickoff, ideal conditions for passing.
Amari Cooper (Browns) more than 54.5 receiving yards
We are building some correlation into the picks this week.
If Flacco throws for more than 226.5 yards, that will bode well for Cooper.
The two have only connected on 10-of-19 targets in their two games together, but it’s encouraging that Flacco threw the ball Cooper’s way 14 times last week against the Jaguars.
Cooper is certainly the most talented wideout on the Cleveland roster, and I would argue that Flacco is the best pure passer that Cooper has played with this season.
Betting on the NFL?
Lucas Havrisik (Rams) more than 1.5 field goals made
When looking to take the “more than” side of kicker projections, I look for teams that are favored, facing bad defenses and ones that don’t have to worry about weather.
The Rams check all of those boxes this week against the Commanders.
They are 6.5-point favorites at home and have a team total of 28.0 points in this game.
Washington has had the worst pass defense in the NFL this season, and we’ve seen Matthew Stafford and this offense move the ball at will in much tougher matchups.
Havrisik has made five field goals over the last two games.
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