The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 19), Morgan Wallen is four weeks from making Billboard Hot 100 history – but may not get there, if Luke Combs, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo or other rising hitmakers have anything to say about it.
Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen’s first Hot 100 No. 1 – and a rare country No. 1 with no co-lead artists or obvious pop crossover attempt (though it has still become a top five hit at pop and adult radio) – has slowly but surely elbowed its way into the Billboard record books. With its 15th week at No. 1 (on the Hot 100 dated Aug. 12), “Last Night” ties Harry Styles’ “As It Was” (2022) for both the longest-leading No. 1 of the 2020s, and the longest in the Hot 100’s now-65-year history from an unaccompanied artist.
Next in its sights: 16 weeks and a tie for the second-longest run atop the Hot 100, alongside Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” (1995-96) and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” (2017). After that, only one song stands between it and all-time Hot 100 No. 1 supremacy: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which held on top for a record-breaking 19 weeks in 2019.
Unlike “Old Town Road,” which Lil Nas X worked tirelessly to push to No. 1 and keep there – with a succession of music videos, remixes, high-profile live performances and social media memes – Wallen has leaned almost all the way back for “Last Night,” doing remarkably little public promotion outside of the One Night at a Time World Tour that he’s been on since March. Rather, its reign has been more reminiscent of Styles’ 2022 run at No. 1, where the song’s performance simply held across all categories (streams, sales and radio airplay) both strong enough and long enough to essentially serve as the default Hot 100-topper anytime there wasn’t a major new release.
But how long and how strong is it still holding after 15 weeks at No. 1 (and 27 weeks total on the chart)? There are finally real signs of slippage, as the song falls on each of the Streaming Songs (from No. 1 to No. 3), Digital Song Sales (6-7) and Radio Songs (2-4) charts this week. The door is creaking open, but another song will still have to charge through – and as of this week, “Last Night” remains the only hit in the top 10 of all three charts.
Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): The most immediate threat to “Last Night” would have to be the song that’s landed exactly one spot below it on the Hot 100 every week since July 1. Luke Combs‘ “Fast Car” is actually leading “Last Night” on both Digital Song Sales (steady at No. 4 this week) and Radio Songs (climbing 3-2), though it still trails it significantly on Streaming Songs (No. 11, buried under an avalanche of Travis Scott debuts).
The big question for “Fast Car” is if it can gain enough on “Last Night” on radio – the only metric where either song is still growing – to make up for its streaming shortfall. While it’s already had a five-week run at No. 1 on Country Airplay, finally replaced on top this week by Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor,” it still has room to grow on top 40 radio, with the song inching up 13-12 on the Pop Airplay listing this week; it also hits No. 1 on Adult Pop Airplay, while pushing 8-7 on Adult Contemporary. If it continues to grow steadily there, while staying level on streaming, it may close the gap enough with “Last Night” in the next couple of weeks.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Swift already came close to unseating Wallen earlier this summer, when her Midnights single “Karma” shot to No. 2 (largely thanks to a boost from a new Ice Spice-featuring remix), but could not quite depose “Last Night.” Now she should have another shot – not with a new song, but an older one: “Cruel Summer,” a former deep cut from her 2019 album Lover, which has ridden a wave of fan fervor and seasonal momentum (as well as official label promotion) to become a hit, and reaches a new peak of No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week.
The story with “Cruel Summer” is similar to that of “Fast Car”: “Last Night” has a sizable edge on streaming (“Summer” ranks just No. 19 on Streaming Songs this week), but is starting to fade on radio while “Summer” surges. And “Summer” is really starting to swelter on the airwaves: It became Swift’s record-setting 12th No. 1 on Pop Airplay last week, and breaks the top five on Radio Songs this week in just its seventh frame on the chart. If its velocity keeps up, it may pass both Combs’ and Wallen’s hits in due time, and could be in the hunt for No. 1 shortly after.
An interesting wrinkle in this three-way race: None of these songs have proper music videos or remixes yet on streaming services. This is essentially par for the course for Wallen (who has not historically leaned on remixes or made a music video since last summer’s “You Proof”), and outside of a recently released live clip, Combs has taken a mostly hands-off approach to promoting his “Fast Car” cover, which he did not originally intend to be a single. Swift has extensive recent history of both official videos and remixes, though – albeit only for Midnights singles, so there’s no precedent for her to pull those levers for an older song. If she does so, though, it could give “Summer” the extra heat it needs to get over the top.
IN THE MIX
Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): Morgan Wallen may have the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 this week, but otherwise the chart belongs to Travis Scott: All 19 tracks from his July album Utopia debut this week, led by the Drake-featuring “Meltdown” (No. 3) and the Playboi Carti-featuring “FE!N,” while “K-POP,” with Bad Bunny and The Weeknd, is already a rising radio hit. Those tracks will likely lose some ground in streaming next week, but if one of them (or any of the other 17) begins to catch some viral heat, Scott certainly has the streaming juice to become a factor: He’s topped the Hot 100 four times already, including with previous album Astroworld’s breakout single “Sicko Mode.”
Gunna, “fukumean” (YSL/300): While 2023 has been short on breakout hip-hop hits, “fukumean” has been a notable exception since its July release, as part of Gunna’s A Gift & A Curse album. The TikTok-boosted smash has gotten as high as No. 4 on the Hot 100 – it slips to No. 7 this week – but it continues to perform exceptionally on streaming, and is starting to find its footing on radio, surging 28-20 on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. If top 40 – which has never been particularly kind to Gunna – decides to give the song (and its radio-unfriendly hook, at least in unedited form) a real chance, he could force his way into the top three before long.
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right” (Geffen): Rodrigo’s lead single from her much-anticipated upcoming sophomore album Guts, “Vampire” actually did already debut at No. 1, but slid in subsequent weeks as first-week streams and (especially) sales declined. The song is still hanging around the lower reaches of the top 10, though– with airplay rapidly picking up (13-11 on Radio Songs this week) – and it may soon be joined in the top tier by new single “Bad Idea Right,” which is due this Friday, and very likely to extend her streak of top 10 Hot 100 debuts.
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