We’re about a month into the college basketball regular season, so we have around a 10-game sample size to analyze the landscape.
With that in mind, a few teams interest me in the futures markets, including a potential national champion and a low-major team undervalued in its conference.
NCAA men’s tournament winner: Auburn (60/1, Caesars)
Auburn’s undervalued, at least by the metrics.
The AP Poll and Caesars Sportsbook power-rate the Tigers around 25th nationally, but advanced statistical sites KenPom, Bart Torvik, Evan Miya and ShotQuality all rank them in the top 15.
Yes, the Tigers lost a game to lowly App State, but that was Auburn’s first true road game and the Tigers were unlucky, shooting an impossible 3-for-27.
That won’t happen again.
The Tigers also took Baylor to the brink, crushed St. Bonaventure and dominated Indiana.
They have a prove-themselves game against USC on Dec. 17 before jumping into non-conference play, and I like Auburn’s chances at home in that spot.
I like the team from a personnel perspective.
The frontcourt is loaded between Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams, and freshman guard Aden Holloway has been outstanding.
The Tigers have enough size in the frontcourt and talent in the backcourt to compete with anyone.
Bruce Pearl is a top-notch head coach who has led Auburn to two SEC regular-season titles and a Final Four appearance in the past five seasons.
But the last few years have been plagued with problems on the offensive end, with Pearl’s squad slipping to 46th nationally in offensive efficiency last year.
But Pearl returned 62 percent of his scoring from last year’s squad, and the experienced players have merged seamlessly with the newcomers.
The result is more than 80 points per game, a top-20 efficiency ranking and a top-10 ShotQuality PPP ranking.
An offense-first Auburn team with a dangerous young point guard could make a deep run in March.
The Tigers aren’t getting enough respect in the market compared to their statistical profile, and I like the roster construction and coaching enough to take a shot with this inflated 60/1 line at Caesars.
America East regular-season winner: Maine (25/1, FanDuel)
I was high on Maine before the year, but after seeing the early-season returns at the top of the America East, I’m even higher on the Black Bears.
New head coach Chris Markwood completely transformed the program in his first season.
After returning four starters and five of his top six scorers for this year, he has the Black Bears at 8-4, the program’s best start since 2004.
Behind stud point-of-attack defender Kellen Tynes, Maine has the America East’s best defense.
The Bears are the conference’s third-best team overall in KenPom’s ratings.
They’re priced way behind Bryant at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is completely wrong, making them crazy undervalued.
Most importantly, Maine’s frontcourt is vastly improved, with Peter Filipovity becoming an interior offensive weapon.
The favorite to win the America East, Vermont, has a relatively weaker frontcourt that was recently shredded by Colgate’s Keegan Records.
Betting on College Basketball?
Meanwhile, the other favorite in the conference, UMass Lowell, has suffered a vital injury to center Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, potentially the conference’s most important player.
The severity of the injury is uncertain, so he could be back soon. It’s something to monitor.
Either way, Lowell still has major injuries with perimeter shooting and turnovers, and Maine will feast on turnover-prone teams.
Maine is undervalued, well-coached and well-rounded, and the teams above it in the hierarchy are vulnerable.
Buy Maine stocks now before it’s too late.
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