We have finally seen the Bengals offense look back to normal.
Joe Burrow’s injury, which was once blatant and concerning in the early quarter of the season, has dissipated.
Last week, we saw him use his legs and run out of the pocket multiple times en route to a dominant double-digit win over the 49ers.
Now the Bengals return home in a rematch of the AFC Divisional Round, where the Bengals sent the Bills packing. Could it be a preview of the AFC Championship? Possibly.
Is it the game of the day? Definitely.
Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of a now-mobile Burrow is wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
Over the past three weeks, as Burrow has inched closer to 100 percent, we’ve seen Chase absolutely light up the stat sheet.
In three straight wins, Chase has hauled in 31 receptions — 43 targets — and 372 yards. It’s a staggering workload for one of the best receivers in football, one that so-eloquently exclaimed, “I’m always open,” following Cincinnati’s 1-3 start to the season.
And it’s true.
The man is always open.
Sunday night will be no different against a Bills defense that is limping along. Chief among their injuries are cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano.
That leaves two huge holes where efficiency lacks, both on the outside and in the middle.
Rasul Douglas was brought in at the trade deadline, but it’s his first game in a new defensive system. It’ll take time for adjustments to be had.
That leads us to Chase, who has lit up the stat sheet and has been Burrow’s only consistently reliable target.
Tee Higgins has really struggled, totaling just 218 yards in six games.
No player aside from Chase has more than 250 receiving yards.
There are two props I like when targeting Chase on Sunday night.
Betting on the NFL?
The first is his yardage prop, even at this current 84.5 number at FanDuel. The other is his anytime touchdown, which is as low as +100 at Caesars Sportsbook.
I’ll dive into the matchup a bit deeper in a second, but let’s talk touchdown. In the past three weeks, Chase has scored four total times and in two of three.
Leading up to this week, he promised a Chad Ochocinco-esque celebration — hopping into the stands and operating a camera — so long as Ochocino paid the fine. Which, of course he agreed to do.
OK, back to the nitty-gritty.
The Bills defense, as good as they are offensively, grade out about league average from a DVOA perspective both against the run and pass.
But they’ve been torched by No. 1 receivers this season, 29th in that category.
Davante Adams went for 84 yards and Calvin Ridley added 122.
Even Darius Slayton hauled in four passes for 69 yards and Kendrick Bourne 63 himself. Chase is a clear upgrade from the latter two.
The Bills flash a combination of zone and man looks throughout, but it doesn’t matter against Chase.
The Bengals receiver has a PFF receiving grade inside the top 15 against both man and zone coverage. Though his target percentage is a staggering 65.1 when facing zone.
With a total set at 50.5, this is going to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
Both teams boast dominant offenses that are both in rhythm.
Where they lack is defense. Burrow’s return to full health means one thing for Chase — more targets, more yards and more production.
Back Chase to star in prime time as he soars over 84.5 yards — I expect him to finish with 100-plus — and finds the end zone.
Read more
