It’s easy to fall into the shadows in this Miami Dolphins offense.
It’s video-game like, the type of superteam that kids build in Madden so they can score 100 points in four quarters.
Tyreek Hill is the superstar of this offense, and he’s on pace to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.
Despite being hurt, rookie De’Von Achane has been the talk of the town after he racked up 460 yards on 12.1 yards per carry. And of course, there’s the veteran Raheem Mostert, with 11 touchdowns in six weeks.
In what sets up to be one of the most exciting games of the season, the Dolphins head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in prime time.
The total is north of 50 for these two high-octane offenses, in which there should be no premium on points.
Rather than targeting the superstars of the world in Hill or A.J. Brown, I’m actually looking at a Dolphins receiver whom I believe is undervalued: Jaylen Waddle.
Waddle has seen a gradual increase in his production since returning from injury and it’s only a matter of time before a breakout game ensues.
Philly’s weak pass defense is a great opportunity to do so.
While the Eagles’ front seven remains dominant — they’re second in rush DVOA and sixth in PFF’s pass rush grade — their secondary ranks 20th in pass DVOA.
Even Darius Slay has struggled, allowing 185 yards and a 76 percent completion rate in Weeks 4 and 5. He missed last week’s bout with the Jets but returned to practice and is expected to play.
CB Bradley Roby and FS Reed Blankenship are reportedly out.
Blankenship’s absence will be missed most.
He not only plays a big part in the middle of the field — tight ends can take advantage — but his loss opens the door for more explosive plays over the top.
Rookie Sydney Brown will make his first start and will likely be picked on by Mike McDaniel and this offense.
You may look at Waddle’s last three weeks — 132 yards total — and be concerned. But he’s hauled in a pair of touchdowns and his underlying metrics show his potential.
For example, his YAC/REC — yards after catch per reception — ranks among the NFL’s best.
Betting on the NFL?
This defensive matchup is a plus for Waddle, as he faces an Eagles defense that runs cover 3 at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
Waddle sees a boost both from a yards per route run and target percentage perspective.
Let’s focus on the latter. Against man coverage, Waddle’s target percentage — the percentage of targets to snaps — is just 20. That number skyrockets to 60 against zone coverage.
In the first two weeks of the season, Waddle soared past his yardage prop with ease. Both weeks he caught a pass for 30-plus yards.
But since his return from a concussion, he has broken 50 yards just once, with his longest reception coming in at 20 yards.
This is the perfect buy-low point for Waddle.
Everyone loves betting Overs, especially in prime-time games, and I’d suspect everyone will focus on the superstars of the game in Hill and Brown.
Waddle is extremely underrated and quite frankly undervalued this week.
The Action Network projections also align with me here, slating Waddle for 71 yards. That’s about 10 yards higher than his current prop.
Get ready to Waddle like a penguin on Sunday, because Jaylen’s going dancing.
His current prop sits around 60.5 and I would bet that and even consider laddering his receiving yards props. He is (+175) to go Over 75-plus yards and (+475) to hit 100 Over at Bet365.
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