Even with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani off the mound until 2025 and Julio Urias off the grid, this winter’s starting pitching market projects as solid or better. Here are my two experts’ dollar predictions plus my own:
1. Blake Snell: Unhittable lefty (about .100 BAA on both breaking pitches) should win his second Cy Young but he’s only thrown 130-plus innings twice (few innings could be viewed positively or negatively). Will be interesting to see who gets more between him and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Expert 1: $185M, 5 years. Expert 2: $180M/6. Me: $200M/6.
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: A rough postseason in Japan shouldn’t dampen free agency much for a two-time MVP who had a 1.21 ERA this year and is admired for poise, athleticism and especially age (25). Mets linked. Expert 1: $210M, 7 years. Expert 2: $120M/5. Me: $200M/8.
3. Aaron Nola: Baseball’s most reliable starter (tied with Zack Wheeler and Gerrit Cole) was great this postseason. Expert 1: $175M, 5 years. Expert 2: $140M/5. Me: $168M/6.
4. Jordan Montgomery: After great finish in Texas (2.79 ERA) he shined in October (1.25 ERA in the ALCS). Expert 1: $120M, 5 years. Expert 2: $80M/5. Me: $120M/6.
5. Eduardo Rodriguez: He’ll opt out of $49M and three years left. Expert 1: $110M, 5 years. Expert 2: $100M/5. Me: $90M/5.
6. Sonny Gray: Terrific season in Minnesota. Expert 1: $66M, 3 years. Expert 2: $65M/3. Me: $72M/3.
7. Lucas Giolito: Rough year for three teams — 41 home runs may be aberration. Expert 1: $51M, 3 years. Expert 2: $80M/4. Me: $45M/3.
8. Clayton Kershaw: It’s presumably either Dodgers or retirement for the model of superb regular-year consistency. Expert 1: $20M, 1 year. Expert 2: $20M/1. Me: $21M/1 (if he pitches).
9. Michael Wacha: Padres have quick deadline on $32M, two-year option. Expert 1: $48M, 3 years. Expert 2: $28M/2. Me: $30M/2.
10. Jack Flaherty: Yet another big talent who didn’t finish big with new team. Expert 1: $42M, 3 years. Expert 2: $10M/1. Me: $45M/3.
11. Seth Lugo: He will decline $7.5M player option after a fine year. Expert 1: $42M, 3 years. Expert 2: $39M/3. Me: $30M/2.
12. Michael Lorenzen: He’s an All-Star who threw a no-hitter, but finish dimmed things. Expert 1: $24M, 2 years. Expert 2: $20M/2. Me: $30M/2.
13. Kyle Hendricks: Cubs can pick up $16M option for pitching savant. Expert 1: $66M, 3 years. Expert 2: $30M/2. Me: Cubs pick up.
14. Kyle Gibson: A nice 15-win season in Baltimore. Expert 1: $22M, 2 years. Expert 2: $12M/1. Me: $12M/1.
15. Hyun-Jin Ryu: Solid finish gets MLB deal. Expert 1: $13M, 1 year. Expert 2: $10M/1 (plus incentives) Me: $12M/1.
16. James Paxton: Showed potential with big start. Expert 1: $10M, 1 year. Expert 2: $8M/1. Me: $11M/1.
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