I probably wouldn’t have believed you if you told me in September that the Bills would be hanging on for dear life in the AFC East in Week 10, but here we are.
Having dropped three of their past four games, all of a sudden the Bills’ “Monday Night Football” home clash against the Broncos carries some hefty weight.
Buffalo is reeling from another heartbreaker at the hands of Cincinnati last week.
If there is someone who has emerged during this rough patch, though, it’s rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the NFL first-round draft pick: The first stretch saw a modest 19 targets from Josh Allen for 118 total yards and no scores.
Then, fellow tight end Dawson Knox went down to a wrist surgery and the flexible pass catcher has flourished for an average of 73.6 yards and a touchdown over the past three weeks.
Kincaid has even tallied two more catches than Stefon Diggs on five less targets in this time window.
He now draws an inviting matchup against a Denver secondary that yields a league-high 71.1 yards to opposing tight ends.
Beyond that statistic, I’m not quite sure where to start with how generous the Broncos have been through the air thus far. They allow 144.6 total yards after catch per game; Kincaid has been especially productive in adding ground with 175 of those, which ranks him in the top 10 among tight ends.
Betting on the NFL?
Despite the Bills’ offensive growing pains as of late, Allen is still an elusive quarterback who has been sacked only 13 total times. The 6-foot-5 scrambling gunslinger should have ample time to execute throws against Denver’s league-worst pressure rate of 16.3 percent.
Kincaid is springboarding off of a career-high 10 receptions on 11 targets, which is a rhythm that should only progress against another league-worst Denver figure of 6.3 yards per offensive play.
His yardage prop is set modestly Monday. I’m looking for Buffalo to keep utilizing its rising talent in a game the Bills will need to grab the upper hand on right away.
THE PLAY: Dalton Kincaid Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
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