Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.
Cleveland Browns (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Watson or not, here we come!
Deshaun Watson moved closer to being able to start against the Colts in what would be a smash spot.
But even if PJ Walker steps in and faces Gardner Minshew in a bad quarterback matchup, Minshew will probably be the “B-Side” of that duel as he runs from the Browns pass rush.
The Browns have the No. 1 defensive DVOA and are No. 9 in total DVOA, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Colts are ranked 19th in total DVOA and have the worst rushing offense.
Add in that the Browns are coming off a big win over the 49ers. Cleveland wins by a touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
We faded these Buccaneers last week and will do it again here.
The Falcons have an excellent run offense headlined by Bijan Robinson.
That will be a crucial piece of the puzzle against the beatable Buccaneers run defense, which was the worst in the NFL coming into last week (PFF) but has improved to a still harmful seventh worst.
The Falcons also have an above-average grade for their coverage, which should help slow down receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
Betting on the NFL?
This game will come down to who will be playing ahead; look for Atlanta to lean on its run defense and win outright by a field goal.
Last week: 1-1. Lions (W). Chargers (L)
2023 season: 5-6.
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