Big XII football is fantastic.
Currently, five teams are tied atop the Big 12 with a 4-1 conference record: Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas State.
While TCU and Texas Tech are not two of the aforementioned teams, the Horned Frogs and Red Raiders are creeping in the background, both sitting at 2-3.
These two play Thursday in Lubbock for this week’s mid-week Big 12 football battle.
There’s much to discuss about this one.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 11 days to prep for this matchup.
Both squads will start backup quarterbacks as TCU’s Chandler Morris and TTU’s Tyler Shough deal with injuries. That’s tough for two offenses that love to air it out.
Also, Texas Tech is looking to beat TCU for the first time since 2018.
The Horned Frogs have won four straight in this in-state rivalry.
I’m betting the Horned Frogs will continue beating the Red Raiders.
Or, at least cover the short spread as a road ‘dog.
TCU vs Texas Tech prediction
(7 p.m. ET. FS1)
In a battle between two backup quarterbacks, I usually back the team that runs the ball better.
But this matchup complicates that.
TCU and Texas Tech are pass-happy teams, dialing up aerial plays at top-25 rates — TCU throws the ball 40 times per game, 15th nationally, while TTU throws the ball 38 times per game, 25th nationally.
Sonny Dykes’ Horned Frogs love the short passing game, while Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders run the Air Raid under offensive coordinator Zach Kittley.
So, even with a pair of backup quarterbacks, I’d expect these two offenses to keep establishing the pass.
Besides, there’s not a big difference between these two rushing attacks.
Both are top-40 nationally in Rush Success Rate on offense, and both rank between 60th and 75th in Rush Success Rate allowed on defense.
So, the critical handicap here is which backup quarterback has the advantage.
The answer is TCU’s Josh Hoover.
Hoover struggled against Kansas State last week, but that’s okay, given the Wildcats’ defense has been elite this year.
Instead, look at his first career start against a more manageable BYU defense.
In short, Hoover dominated that game.
He completed 37 of his 58 passes for 440 yards and four touchdowns, recording a 92.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade.
He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt and .22 EPA per Play with a 53% Success Rate.
Behind Hoover’s masterful performance, the Horned Frogs dropped 44 in a 33-point win.
Hoover has looked excellent against Cover-3 defense.
He shredded BYU whenever the Cougars’ defense shifted into that look.
Lucky for him, Texas Tech also plays a lot of Cover-3. Even better, the Red Raiders’ secondary isn’t that good, ranking 85th nationally in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades.
So, the redshirt freshman is due for a bounce-back performance in a good matchup.
TCU’s pass defense isn’t much better, as the Horned Frogs rank 67th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 58th in EPA per Pass allowed.
But, lucky for TCU’s secondary, Texas Tech’s aerial attack is a mess.
Starting quarterback Tyler Shough needed to stay healthy, and he didn’t.
With backups Behren Morton and Jake Strong, the Red Raiders rank 69th nationally in Pass Success Rate and sub-100th in EPA per Pass.
Kittley can’t muster up six yards per pass attempt without Shough under center.
To add injury to insult, Morton missed a game and is listed as “probable” for Thursday.
While we should expect him to play, he could be less than 100%.
The Red Raiders are also still missing starting left guard Cole Spencer, who’s been out with a foot injury since Week 6.
So, ultimately, I trust Hoover and TCU more than Morton and Texas Tech.
I think the Horned Frogs could establish a decent passing attack on Thursday, and I don’t believe the same about the Red Raiders.
For example, the Frogs have a legit wideout weapon in JP Richardson, who ranks top-20 nationally among qualified wide receivers in Pro Football Focus’s Receiving grades, averaging almost three yards per route run.
Richardson has already established a legitimate connection with Hoover.
While Texas Tech’s weapons were heralded in the preseason, those weapons aren’t producing as expected.
The Red Raiders don’t have a single running back, tight end or wide receiver among the top 200 qualified skill players in PFF’s Receiving grades.
Wideouts Myles Price and Jerand Bradley have been okay, and lead back Tahj Brooks is already close to 1,000 scrimmage yards.
Still, there’s not much for Morton to work with – or, perhaps, these players’ production is handicapped by poor quarterback play.
Either way, in a matchup between two mediocre Big 12 defenses and two pass-happy offenses with backup gunslingers, I’ll put my money on Hoover, Richardson and the Horned Frogs.
I think TCU wins this game outright, but I’ll happily grab any points gifted to me by the books.
TCU vs Texas Tech Pick
TCU +3 (-110) at BetMGM | Play to PK (-110)
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