Back-to-back losses have taken a bit of the shine off the Buffaloes, but Colorado has still overperformed expectations and shows betting value this week.
A week ago, we backed ASU in this column and the Sun Devils got us to the window against Cal. However, as is often the case in sports betting, things flip quickly.
This week, we’re fading ASU at home and backing Colorado (-4.5).
Through five weeks, two things are abundantly clear about Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes:
- The offense can put up points in bunches.
- The defense is nonexistent.
That being said, I’m not sure ASU’s offense can exploit Colorado’s porous defense, at least not to the extent it’ll need to in order to win this game.
The Sun Devils, losers of four straight, are banged up on the offensive line and averaging just 332 yards per game, which ranks 11th in the Pac-12.
Colorado is surrendering 480 yards per game (12th in the Pac-12), but is there any evidence ASU can capitalize?
The Sun Devils have amassed over 400 yards of offense just once this season (last week), but only managed to turn that into 21 points.
ASU, behind quarterback Trenton Bourguet and do-it-all running back Cameron Skattebo, will have some success moving the ball (all teams do against the Buffaloes), but it certainly won’t be able to keep pace in a shootout.
ASU has yet to score 30 points this season. Meanwhile, Colorado has scored 36 or more in four of five games and has tallied at least 40 on four occasions.
If ASU won’t be able to keep up with Colorado in a shootout, can it prevent this game from becoming a shootout?
Well, ASU’s defense has played well this season and is giving up just 212 passing yards per game, the third-best mark in the conference.
However, ASU’s offensive struggles and sub-standard play on special teams consistently put the defense in tough spots, which I expect Colorado to capitalize on.
Shedeur Sanders isn’t going to win the Heisman, but he’s proven more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Sanders has thrown for over 300 yards four times this season and also has a trio of four-touchdown games.
The Sun Devils will have to apply pressure and Sanders has been sacked at least three times in each game this season, but Colorado’s offense is so explosive that the Buffaloes are putting up points regardless.
Betting on College Football?
Speaking of explosiveness on offense, this feels like the type of game that will feature a big play or two from Dylan Edwards. Colorado’s running back is listed at just 5-foot-7 and 190 pounds, but boasts elite speed and is a big-play threat whenever he touches the ball.
If it’s not Edwards, Colorado has shown it has plenty of players capable of striking at any given time as the Buffaloes have already had five separate players log 100+ yard receiving games.
Injuries have decimated ASU’s roster and Colorado’s tempo will test ASU’s defensive depth.
I don’t think ASU will be able to keep pace with Colorado on Saturday afternoon. I’m betting Colorado -4.5 and would play it to -6.
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