Is the Prime Party over?
Colorado looked terrible last week.
The Buffs needed a furious 11-point fourth-quarter comeback to force overtime against Colorado State, and they only won because the Rams committed 17 penalties for 182 penalty yards.
College Football Data’s Postgame Win Expectancy model projects the Rams win that game 95% of the time in the long run.
Colorado State was better by many metrics, including total yards (499 to 418) and Success Rate (48% to 42%).
Adding insult to injury, two-way superstar Travis Hunter suffered an injury that will keep him out for at least three weeks.
That’s a blow to both sides of the football.
But Deion and Co. have exceeded our expectations so far. Can they do it again as three-touchdown road favorites?
Oregon vs. Colorado prediction
(3:30 p.m. ET., ABC)
The answer is a resounding no.
Well, at least I’m betting the game that way.
Colorado has issues, specifically on the offensive line and across the defense.
The eye test backs up the metrics.
Colorado continuously shows monster holes in its front seven, and Colorado State’s front seven lived in the Buffaloes’ backfield in Week 3 (Mohamed Kamara and Co. created 23 pressures).
The defensive metrics are very concerning. The Buffaloes have been shredded by opposing rush offenses, allowing almost 200 rush yards per game at five yards per attempt.
The Buffaloes rank dead last nationally in net rush yards per attempt (negative 3.0).
The secondary has carried the water defensively, with Hunter leading an average pass defense. But his injury leaves a big hole in the back half of that defense, a hole that Colorado State attacked for 7.8 yards per dropback.
This week, Colorado’s defense must battle an electric Ducks offense led by dual-threat quarterback Bo Nix. Nix has almost 900 passing yards alongside 60 rushing yards for an offense that ranks top-five nationally in EPA per play and Success Rate.
Oregon has an experienced offensive line and several deadly skill-position weapons, including running back Bucky Irving (8.0 yards per carry) and wide receiver Troy Franklin (17.2 yards per reception).
This is a brutal test for a banged-up, overvalued Colorado defense coming off an overtime win and missing its most important player
The test will be too harsh. Coach Prime is set up to fail.
However, the key factor in this handicap is Oregon’s defense. Can the Ducks stymie Sheduer Sanders’ passing attack?
The answer is a resounding yes.
Well, at least I’m betting it that way.
Oregon’s secondary returned six of their top eight producers from last year’s unit while adding four impact transfers. Meanwhile, after gaining 20 lbs. in the offseason, safety-turned-linebacker Jamal Hill has become a productive pass rusher.
The experience and improvements are showing. The Ducks are top-10 nationally in EPA per dropback and Pass Success Rate allowed.
To be fair, the Ducks have faced only one big test, coming against Tyler Shough and Texas Tech.
Betting on College Football?
But the Ducks passed that test. They held the Red Raiders to -0.22 EPA per dropback, which would rank in the 25th percentile of FBS teams across an entire season.
Texas Tech boasts an electric, experienced, explosive aerial offense. The Ducks shut that down, and they should do the same this week against Colorado.
As alluded to, Colorado doesn’t have a rushing game to fall back on. The Buffs are averaging only 60 rush yards per game at 2.0 yards per carry.
If Sheduer’s offense stalls against an up-and-coming Oregon pass defense, Colorado will struggle to move the ball in Eugene on Saturday.
I’m betting the Buffaloes see further regression this week in their stiffest test yet, with Oregon capitalizing on its advantages in a blowout victory.
ESPN’s SP+ projections make Oregon a 28-point favorite, meaning there’s plenty of value in laying the large number here.
Oregon vs. Colorado pick
Oregon -21 (-110, BetMGM) | Play to -23.5 (-110)
Read more
