Don’t Let The Win Fool You; Denver Broncos Still Aren’t Competing For A Playoff Spot

The 2023 Denver Broncos may not be the worst team in the NFL after all.

The Broncos emerged as winners in Week 7, defeating the Green Bay Packers, 19-17, for their first home win of the season. Not only did Denver avoid their first ever 0-4 start at home, they finally broke an embarrassing streak of 10 consecutive games lost when leading at halftime.

Through the first seven games of the season, the Broncos are 2-5. And while they’re still the worst team in the AFC from a record standpoint, they actually have the same amount of wins as the Los Angeles Chargers and are just two games behind the Buffalo Bills for the final playoff spot in the wild card race.

But don’t let the win fool you — the Broncos are still one of the worst teams in the NFL.

There the Broncos were, once again struggling to score touchdowns in the red zone. Despite dominating the first half of play, Denver held just a 9-0 lead due to their ineptitude in the red zone. In fact, they went 0-for-3 in the red zone in the first half before finally finishing off their one red zone attempt in the second half with a touchdown.

There was Wilson once again, finishing with a pretty-looking stat line — 20-of-29 passing, one touchdown, zero turnovers and a 98.9 passer rating — but being unable to finish drives by completing passes inside the 20-yard-line. In fact, he went 1-of-4 for one yard during the first half in the red zone.

And yet again, there was another coaching blunder by Sean Payton after the Broncos scored their first touchdown with 6:17 remaining in the third quarter, opting to kick an extra point to go up 16-3 instead of a two-point conversion to stretch the lead to two full touchdowns.

Thankfully, kicker Will Lutz and the defensive unit eliminated any awkward postgame questions about the decision when they sealed the victory with a game-winning field goal and forced interception in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

This victory, which will mean very little once Denver matches up with the Kansas City Chiefs and Bills in their next two games, shouldn’t change the Broncos’ plans at the trade deadline. In other words, the Broncos should remain sellers at the deadline.

Prior to their win over the Packers, Payton even drew comparisons to this year’s Broncos and the 2022 Detroit Lions.

“There’s a fine line here between a groove and a rut. You take a look, and I’ll give you an example—Detroit,” Payton said earlier in the week. “A year ago, I watched it as a media member, covering a handful of tough losses. They were 1-6. I know [Lions HC] Dan [Campbell] well, and you keep fighting. There’s a grit element involved. Some mental toughness that’s involved. Pretty soon, here they are at the end of the season. They were eliminated before [they played their final game], but they were in contention.”

Payton and the organization have done a great job at making it appear as if Denver is still trying to win games. Heck, they remain adamant that they won’t just give up veteran players in exchange for any draft haul at the deadline on October 31.

“We’re not looking to do business with any of our players,” Payton said on October 10. “That doesn’t prevent teams from calling at times. We just — you pick the phone up, but that’s kind of where it’s at.”

Those comments came shortly after the Broncos traded former $70 million man Randy Gregory and abruptly released three-time Pro Bowler Frank Clark when they couldn’t find a trade for the defensive end.

So that would mean popular names thrown around in rumors such as Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Josey Jewell and Justin Simmons won’t be traded for the sake of it.

In fact, Dianna Russini of The Athletic reported just prior to Denver’s Week 7 game against Green Bay that the Broncos are indeed not having a “fire sale” at the deadline.

“The Denver Broncos are not having a fire sale despite a troubling start to their season,” writes Russini. “Multiple people with the team told me that they will listen to offers on every player but aren’t selling the roster. I was told to look for them to move pieces on the defensive side of the ball.”

You can conclude one of two things based upon this report. Either the Broncos are dead serious on not simply wanting to ship out players for some low draft picks, or Denver is trying to send out a smokescreen while they are trying to sell off their players in an effort to increase their leverage in trade talks.

Hopefully they’re going for the latter.

Sutton’s trade value isn’t going to get any better if Denver retains him. He’s coming off of a solid performance in the win over the Packers, leading all receivers with six catches for 76 yards and one touchdown. That follows a strong game in the loss to the Chiefs in which he posted four receptions for 46 yards and one touchdown. He now has five touchdowns in seven games played this season.

If the Broncos are able to get a third-round pick in return for Sutton, it’s something they should consider. While his performance has been stronger as of late, he has not lived up to his billing as a No. 1 receiver since signing a $60.8 million extension during the 2021 season.

In fact, he’s mostly posted pedestrian numbers since his Pro Bowl campaign in 2019, averaging roughly 46 receiving yards per game during the 2021 and 2023 seasons while averaging 55 receiving yards per game during the 2022 season. He averaged nearly 70 yards per game during his lone 1,000-yard season in 2019.

It might be hard to fetch high trade value for Jeudy after a rough season — at one point in time, Denver desired a first-round pick in exchange for the young receiver — but he’s obviously on the table if the right opportunity presents itself.

Meanwhile, Simmons’ level of play remains high, but he’s on the verge of turning 30 years old with one of the highest cap hits of any safety in the NFL — $18.150 million this season — and could be flipped to a safety-needy team like the Philadelphia Eagles for a high draft pick.

Furthermore, Simmons and Jewell are staples of a defensive unit that is still probably the worst in the NFL, entering Week 7 allowing 33.3 points per game, the highest in the NFL.

The Broncos may want to act like they’re not desperate in flipping players at the deadline. While “desperate” may not be the right word to use, make no mistake about it — Denver will be sellers at the trade deadline.

They’re not going to make trades in an effort to increase their chances of competing for a playoff spot this season.

They’ll be listening to any worthy trade offers that will give them the ability to flip veteran players/salaries while building assets for the future.

That’s the definition of a seller.