Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) OVER MINNESOTA VIKINGS
This weekend, we find out just how critical Kirk Cousins was to Minnesota’s success.
Expect the Vikings to lean on their rushing attack with rookie Jaren Hall starting without Justin Jefferson as they face Atlanta,
The only issue with that is Atlanta defends the run quite well, allowing 3.8 yards per carry (top 10) and boasting the second-best run-stopping unit in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
The way to beat Atlanta is down the field, but Hall, in his first career start, is in a tough spot to do that.
Take the front-running Falcons to wear down Minnesota in the second half and cover on Sunday, as new starter Taylor Heinicke holds on to the ball much better than Desmond Ridder.
Buffalo Bills (+2) OVER CINCINNATI BENGALS
Much has been made of the injuries in Buffalo, and the world will probably be on Cincinnati — consider me the contrarian.
But that battered Buffalo defense that the world says is falling is still 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the past three games.
On offense, they are in the top 10 in total yards per play in their past three games.
Simply put, the problems the Bills are facing are largely overblown.
Betting on the NFL?
Buffalo is third overall in the NFL in DVOA, behind only the Dolphins and 49ers.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are in the bottom half of the league in yards per play on offense in their past three games while posting the NFL’s worst yards per play allowed in the NFL (5.9) on defense in the same time span.
For all the love that the Bengals are getting right now, they should not be favored this weekend and are only winning because the turnover battle is 8-3 in their favor during the win streak.
Last week: 0-2. Chiefs (L), Rams (L).
2023 season: 6-9-1.
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