Here’s a twist: The biggest free agent ever heads perhaps the weakest crop of hitters/position players ever.
Shohei Ohtani is only a DH for 2024 but he’s sure to get the biggest baseball contract ever, unless you believe long-shot rumors he’ll do a short deal and reset (why leave $500M or thereabouts on the table when you can just add an opt-out!).
Two experts and I weigh in with money predictions for all.
1. Shohei Ohtani
The elbow injury that will limit him to hitting in ’24 won’t prevent a record deal — although, true or not, some speculate he knows where he wants to go before even hearing every offer. The Dodgers are still seen as the favorite and they’re trying hard, but the Giants, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, Padres, Mets, Yankees, Mariners and incumbent Angels are linked to varying degrees, and the Dodgers can’t feel overly confident.
Expert 1: $535M, 11 years. Expert 2: $400M, 10 years (opt-out after 2024). Me: $600M, 10 years.
2. Cody Bellinger
Now healthy, he recaptured past hitting skill to go with terrific all-around play. The incumbent Cubs, Yankees and Giants are in play.
Expert 1: $220M, 8 years. Expert 2: $150M, 6 years. Me: $240M, 8 years.
3. Matt Chapman
A nagging finger injury curtailed his hitting in 2023 (.204 after April, .240 overall) but he’s one of the game’s best defenders and still a 4-WAR player.
Expert 1: $156M, 6 years. Expert 2: $80M, 4 years (opt-out after 2024). Me: $150M, 6 years.
4. Teoscar Hernandez
Late rally ensured fourth straight 25-homer season.
Expert 1: $68M, 4 years. Expert 2: $42M, 3 years. Me: $48M, 3 years.
5. J.D. Martinez:
He had a big year, but Dodgers had to make room for Ohtani.
Expert 1: $63M, 3 years. Expert 2: $15M, 1 year. Me: $44M, 2 years.
6. Rhys Hoskins
Missed 2023 with knee injury, and Phillies missed him.
Expert 1: $60M, 3 years. Expert 2: $40M, 2 years (opt-out after 2024). Me: $20M, 1 year.
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
First-time All-Star will cash in. Expert 1: $56M, 4 years.
Expert 2: $36M, 3 years. Me: $45M, 3 years.
8. Jeimer Candelario
Had best year for Nats and Cubs after being non-tendered.
Expert 1: $48M, 4 years. Expert 2: $20M, 2 years. Me: $39M, 3 years.
9. Mitch Garver
Big year for world-champion Texas.
Expert 1: $45M, 3 years. Expert 2: $18M, 2 years. Me: $30M, 2 years.
10. Jorge Soler
Lucky to escape the qualifying offer after 36-homer season.
Expert 1: $42M, 3 years. Expert 2: $34M, 2 years. Me: $36M, 2 years.
11. Jung-Hoo Lee
Good defense in center, with power.
Expert 1: $40M, 4 years. Expert 2: $80M, 5 years. Me: $60M, 4 years.
12. Kevin Kiermaier
Great center fielder.
Expert 1: $23M, 2 years. Expert 2: $18M, 2 years. Me: $22M, 2 years.
13. Whit Merrifield
New style of play benefits speedster.
Expert 1: $24M, 3 years. Expert 2: $15M, 2 years. Me: $18M, 2 years.
14. Justin Turner
Big year in Boston made $6.7M opt-out easy call.
Expert 1: $14M, 1 year. Expert 2: $12M, 1 year. Me: $22M, 2 years.
15. Jason Heyward
Had his best year when least expected.
Expert 1: $17M, 2 years. Expert 2: $7M, 1 year. Me: $12M, 1 year.
16. Tommy Pham
Killed it in World Series.
Expert 1: $9M, 1 year. Expert 2: $7.5M, 1 year. Me: $10M, 1 year.
17. Harrison Bader
An off-year wasn’t well-timed, but big playoff performer is great in center.
Expert 1: $9M, 1 year. Expert 2: $8M, 1 year. Me: $11M, 1 year.
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