The Mets are now eighth on a list every club is determined to escape.
With the Rangers’ first championship since forming in 1961 as the Washington Senators, there are just seven teams that have gone longer without a title than the Mets, who last won in 1986:
The Tigers (1984), Orioles (1983), Pirates (1979), Mariners (1977), Brewers (1969), Padres (1969) and Guardians (1948). The Mariners, Brewers (who were the Seattle Pilots in 1969) and Padres have never won a championship, nor have the Rays or Rockies, but those teams came into being in 1998 and 1993, respectively.
In the past 10 seasons, the Mets have been pushed down the list by the 2014 Giants (previous title 1954), 2015 Royals (1985), the 2016 Cubs (1908), the 2017 Astros (never), the 2019 Nationals (never) and now the Rangers. The Mets are not ready to hear chants like another Rangers team once did (“Nineteen-forty”), but it is 37 years and counting.
So which of the Eight is Enough will be the first to worsen the position of others like, perhaps the Yankees (currently 20th, last winning in 2009):
Orioles: They are poised for a contention phase with a young positional core built around Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutchsman with the best prospect in the game, shortstop Jackson Holliday, ready to join the cast next season. They have so much positional depth that they can be in on any pitching trade — if the Mariners, for example, make a starter with control such as Logan Gilbert or George Kirby available.
Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are the beginnings of a strong rotation, but the Orioles’ championship potential rises if they hit on, say, a Column A (trade) and Column B (free agent). Put, say, Dylan Cease (trade) and Sonny Gray (signing) on the roster, and what does this look like? And the Orioles should be aggressive. The young core of today begins to gain service time quickly, and Baltimore ownership never sounds like it is willing to do long-term deals to retain the best of it.
Mets: I do not see 2024 as a punt. If the 84-win Diamondbacks can make a run to the World Series, why couldn’t a club with a still strong talent base, plus now a growing farm system ready to help with either promotion or trade pieces as early as next season get into the tournament next year?
David Stearns was brought in for the big picture, and the Mets will emphasize the long term. But in the short term, Stearns can use Steve Cohen’s money to, say, enlist Yoshinobu Yamamoto then dominate the one- and two-year free-agent market to augment the club without blocking future roles/payrolls.
Mariners: Seattle is in the advantageous spot as one of the few teams that does not have to dip into a fierce starter market, with Gilbert, Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo — and perhaps a late bump from Robbie Ray returning from Tommy John surgery. Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh give them an up-the-middle bulwark. But the positional group is just not strong enough — which is why Seattle perhaps has to think of using a starter to find a bat (or two).
Also, the Mariners and Blue Jays stand out as teams that underperform their talent base — as if there is something imperfect with the cultures. The Mariners have made the playoffs just once since 2001. They are another team that needs urgency to capitalize on a “now” rotation.
Padres: They are in a troubling middle ground of having to go for it because of their investments and yet having to retrench due to their investments. The spending spree to land and/or to extend Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove and Fernando Tatis Jr., plus emptying a chunk of the farm system for Juan Soto did not even bring the playoffs in 2023.
Now, they face a financial crunch that leaves them in a dubious position to replace potentially three free-agent starting pieces — probable NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Does this mean they have to trade Soto, who is likely to exceed $30 million in arbitration before his walk year?
Plus, this is another place in which the culture is in question, with the discord between GM A.J. Preller and manager Bob Melvin leading to Melvin’s exit to the Giants, and real questions about clubhouse unity. Lots of talent here. Lots of issues.
Guardians: If you see Cleveland rising, it is for two reasons — infrastructure and division. The AL Central will likely remain the weakest division in 2024. And the Guardians have won it four of the past eight seasons, in part due to the strong continuity/capability provided by Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff running baseball operations. But Terry Francona has been part of that success cycle, and he stepped down as manager.
Cleveland, like Seattle, does not have to jostle into the congested pitching market. In fact, the Guardians could dangle Shane Bieber to see if they can begin to upgrade a woeful offense.
Tigers: The outlines of a contender are coming into view for a club that has not had a winning record since 2016 and hasn’t made the playoffs since 2014, tied with the Angels for the longest active drought. Are Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson foundational position pieces, likely to be joined in 2024 by Colt Keith? Is the same true about rotation pieces Matt Manning, Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal, a returning-from-Tommy-John-surgery Casey Mize and eventually Jackson Jobe?
They just got out of the Miguel Cabrera albatross contract but are now neck deep in Javier Baez for four more years. Still, this is a team that should take a chance on a rebound rotation candidate, such as Frankie Montas or Luis Severino, who is willing to do a one-year deal and see if they can catch some magic and make a run at a 2024 playoff spot.
Brewers: It feels as if David Stearns exited at a good time. Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames — keys to Milwaukee making the playoffs five times in the past six seasons — are entering their walk year. The same would be true of Brandon Woodruff, but he needed shoulder surgery, will, at the least, miss most of 2024 and is a non-tender candidate.
In Jackson Chourio, the Brewers have a prospect who stands with Holliday atop the heap. Can another run be built around him, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer plus — vitally — whatever they might get in a trade for Burnes, who even with just one year of control should net a nice haul if Milwaukee moves him? Is Craig Counsell staying as manager or not? Interestingly, he is in play for two other teams on this list: the Mets and Guardians.
Pirates: For an organization that has been over .500 once (82-79 in 2018) in the past eight years, the Pirates have done a lot of rebuilding without establishing cornerstone players. On an ideal roster, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds would be strong complementary players to stars. Henry Davis, the first-overall pick in 2020, hardly honored that pedigree in 2023.
Sadly, they probably should be trading closer David Bednar and starter Mitch Keller into a market where the returns should be big and just accept that they are still so far away, even in a tepid NL Central.
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