Wednesday night’s Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee game marks the start of 50 days of football.
We are officially in the thick of football season, the best time of year for sports fans and bettors.
Gamecocks vs. Blue Raiders isn’t the most glamorous of mid-week college football matchups, but it’s not a game devoid of excitement. JVST is making a mark during its first season at the FBS level (4-1), while Middle Tennessee is trying to dig itself out of an early-season hole (1-4).
Despite the early-season results, the Raiders are laying over a field goal at home in this matchup.
I’m unsure if that makes sense.
Let’s start our 50 Days of Football with a Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction, pick and winner.
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee State odds
Spread: Jacksonville State +3.5 (-110) vs. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Jacksonville State (+140) vs. Middle Tennessee State (-165)
Total: Over 52 (-110) | Under 52 (-110)
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee State prediction
(8:00 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Rich Rodriguez’s Gamecocks averaged more than 36 PPG in their last season at the FCS level, and they returned nine starters from that unit for their first FBS season.
So with the Gamecocks at 4-1, you’d assume it was because of a high-powered offense that translated to the FBS level.
But that’s hardly the case. Jacksonville State is 78th nationally in points per game, 85th in Success Rate and 105th in EPA per Play.
Instead, coordinator Zac Alley’s defense is driving Jacksonville State’s early-season success.
The Gamecocks rank 15th nationally in points per game allowed, seventh in EPA per Play allowed and eighth in Success Rate allowed.
Most of that success has come against the run, with Jacksonville State allowing 2.6 yards per carry and ranking 13th in Pro Football Focus’s Run Defense grades.
Four Gamecocks players have PFF Run Defense grades above 80, as Jaylen “J-Rock” Swain and Chris Hardie lead the way with a combined 25 Run Stops.
Last week’s game against Sam Houston State is concerning. Jacksonville State allowed more than 400 yards of total offense to one of the nation’s worst offenses, and it let the Bearkats possess the ball for more than 42 minutes of game time.
However, the Gamecocks had three offensive turnovers that resulted in 14 Bearkat points, and they allowed a below-average Success Rate (39%) outside of that. It seems like Sam Houston State pulled out a few explosive passing plays off flukey turnovers that skewed the score.
I’m hoping that’s an anomaly.
More importantly, Jacksonville State might have found something on offense last week.
On the season, the Gamecocks’ passing attack is among the nation’s worst, ranking 129th in EPA per Dropback. However, some of that is by design, as the RichRod scheme is rush-heavy (46 rush attempts per game, top-10 nationally) and relies on seventh-year quarterback Zion Webb’s dual-threat ability.
But the Gamecocks switched starting quarterbacks from Webb to Logan Smothers earlier this season. Smothers is the more accurate passer (60.8% completion, 5 TDs, 0 INTs), and he’s proven to be a competent rusher (255 yards on 53 attempts).
Smothers showed he’s the right man for the job last week, earning Conference USA Offensive Player of the Week honors for his comeback against Sam Houston State.
Behind Smothers, the Gamecocks dropped 35 points on only 17 minutes of possession time, including 28 points over the final quarter and a half against a rock-solid Sam Houston State defense.
Jacksonville State can still run the ball, but if a Smothers-led offense finds something through the air, this unit’s ceiling is significantly raised.
Rodriguez knows how to coach up an offense, so I can’t imagine the team struggling this much for the rest of the season.
Either way, I suspect the Gamecocks will capitalize on its strengths in this matchup, even if only because Middle Tennessee lacks talent.
I am extremely low on the Blue Raiders.
During the past offseason, head coach Rick Stocksill lost his starting quarterback (Chase Cunningham), his top three wide receivers, his best pass rusher (Jordan Ferguson), and his best ball-hawking cornerback (Decorian Patterson).
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As a result, this fresh-faced team is experiencing growing pains.
The Blue Raiders are 92nd in Success Rate and 110th in Success Rate Allowed.
The Blue Raiders throw the ball a lot but aren’t very good at it. New quarterback Nick Vattiato isn’t consistent, following up a great game against Missouri with five Big Time Throws and Eight Turnover Worthy plays in three other starts.
Meanwhile, the team cannot run the ball behind an offensive line that ranks 96th in average Line Yards and 131st in Pro Football Focus’s Rush Blocking grades.
Conversely, the team can’t stop the run behind a defensive line that ranks 95th in average Line Yards and 119th in Pro Football Focus’s Rush Defense grades.
That’s great news for a talented Jacksonville State offensive line led by left guard Clay Webb – the former five-star prospect and All-American with Georgia is 11th in Pro Football Focus’s Run Blocking grades and 19th in their Pass Blocking grades among qualified FBS offensive linemen this season.
Ultimately, I expect the RichRod offense to run the ball well against this soft Middle Tennessee front, and the passing attack could put up some extra points if Smothers continues his progression.
And I expect Alley’s defense to stuff a Middle Tennessee offense that’s been, predictably, disappointing. The Blue Raiders can’t move the rock, and Jacksonville State is looking to bounce back from their unlucky 28-point effort in Week 5.
I think the wrong team is favored Wednesday night. ESPN’s SP+ model projects the Gamecocks as 2.5-point favorites, while our Action Analytics team projects them as two-point favorites.
So, I’ll happily grab the points with RichRod and the ‘Cocks in this Wednesday night tilt.
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee State Pick
Jacksonville State +3 (-108, BetRivers) | Play to PK
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