It didn’t look like it at first, but perhaps the Rams got it right when they picked Jared Goff over Carson Wentz in the 2016 draft — Goff leading the best Lions team we’ve seen in decades and Wentz out of the league until being signed for depth by the Rams in the past week.
It didn’t look like it at first, but maybe the Lions won the 2021 Goff-Matthew Stafford trade — Goff looking brand new since the deal and Stafford becoming paper mache since winning Super Bowl LVI his first season in L.A.
It didn’t look like it at first, but maybe those fantasy managers who drafted Goff late, or picked him up off the waiver wire, got it right, rather than those who spent earlier picks on Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields or Deshaun Watson.
However you might have stumbled upon the access to Goff, this is a good week to have him.
First, we tend to like anyone playing the Chargers, because they historically tend to play to the level of their opponent. Since the Lions are pretty good, and are capable of scoring a lot, we tend to think the Chargers will mostly keep up. That means the Lions don’t get to back off, and Goff keeps throwing.
That helps the volume side of the equation. What helps the efficiency is the defense Goff will be throwing against. The Chargers are the second-most generous against opposing fantasy quarterbacks, giving up 4.7 fantasy points more per week than the league average — only the Commanders give up more (4.8).
That looks like a pretty good matchup, until you realize it is probably even better than that. As poor as the Chargers have been vs. quarterbacks, they have played three games against some of the worst in the league — yielding single-point outings to the Raiders’ Aidan O’Connell, Bears’ Tyson Bagent and Jets’ Zach Wilson.
In the other five games, they have surrendered an average of 26.5 per game to quarterbacks — which is 11 points more than the league average. And we would argue Goff is a markedly better QB than any of the aforementioned Three Stunkateers.
Then we have the fresh factor. The Lions are coming off a bye, the Chargers off an East Coast game on Monday night. Detroit will have a healthy David Montgomery at running back for the first time in weeks. He will be paired with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who enjoyed a breakout with Montgomery sidelined.
Amon-Ra St. Brown should be at full strength for the first time in weeks, after an abdominal injury then an illness ahead of the bye. It is possible they get to debut new trade-deadline WR addition Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is dealing with a rib problem.
It very much feels like a feel-good game for the Lions. We expect plenty of points, and for many of those points to be delivered by Goff. We’re playing him ahead Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and the like.
Big weeks
Sam Howell QB, Commanders, at Seahawks (FanDuel $7,200/DraftKings $5,900)
We’re back on Howell this week. Did you realize he is the QB6 on the season? Yeah, that’s a real thing. Even if Seattle pulls away, garbage points are points all the same.
Davante Adams WR, Raiders, vs. Jets (FD $7,400/DK $8,000)
People worrying about stiff Jets D, but Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown have all enjoyed huge days. Giving new Raiders staff benefit of doubt that they can feed Adams when needed.
Tyler Boyd WR, Bengals, vs. Texans (FD $6,200/DK $4,600)
Tee Higgins (hamstring) ruled out, again. Ja’Marr Chase dealing with a back issue that could limit mobility. Boyd in line for extra targets, as well as Trenton Irwin.
Christian Kirk WR, Jaguars, vs. 49ers (FD $6,700/DK $6,000)
Who would have thought the 49ers would be third-worst at anything defensively — in this case defending fantasy WRs. Kirk has surprised by remaining Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target despite arrival of Calvin Ridley.
Small weaks
Kyler Murray QB, Cardinals, vs. Falcons (FD $7,500/DK $5,900)
Great matchup, but that is sort of irrelevant. We worry about any QB seeing his first action in nearly a year. Expect some rust, and some hesitancy to run — coming off an ACL injury.
Betting on the NFL?
David Montgomery RB, Lions, at Chargers (FD $7,500/DK $6,900)
Before rushing him back into lineup, if you’ve found a worthy sub, stick with it. After exploding in his absence, little worried Jahmyr Gibbs might slash deeper into Montgomery’s workload.
James Conner RB, Cardinals RB, vs. Falcons (FD $6,500/DK $5,900)
Conner is a different kind of red flag than Murray. Not so much worried about anything injury-related with Conner, assuming he returns, but Falcons are stiff vs. the run — zero rushing TDs allowed to RBs this season.
James Cook RB, Bills, vs. Broncos (FD $6,300/DK $6,300)
Keep in mind Cook doesn’t score TDs (just two all season), because the team seems to prefer other options near the goal line. Plus, outside of one long run by the Jets, the Denver run D hasn’t been bad since the Miami debacle.
Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (10 games)
Type: $9 tourney
Top prize: $200K
Pot: $1M
Drew’s Crew
QB: Jared Goff — Det (at LAC) $8,000
RB: Austin Ekeler — LAC (vs. Det) $9,000
RB: Joe Mixon — Cin (vs. Hou) $7,700
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown — Det (at LAC) $8,600
WR: Nelson Agholor — Bal (vs. Cle) $5,000
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Sea (vs. Was) $5,600
TE: Sam LaPorta — Det (at LAC) $6,500
Flex: Foster Moreau — NO (at Min) $4,400
DEF: Cowboys — Dal (vs. NYG) $5,200
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Will Levis — Ten (at TB) $6,800
RB: Aaron Jones — GB (at Pit) $6,800
RB: Najee Harris — Pit (at GB) $6,500
WR: Chris Olave — NO (at Min) $7,400
WR: DeAndre Hopkins — Ten (at TB) $7,100
WR: Tank Dell — Hou (at Cin) $6,400
TE: Sam LaPorta — Det (at LAC) $6,500
Flex: DK Metcalf — Sea (vs. Was) $7,300
DEF: Cowboys — Dal (vs. NYG) $5,200
Season risked: $89
Season’s winnings: Drew $58, Jarad $9
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