It is hard to remember exactly when the conversation began.
Maybe it was when Tom Brady turned 35 in 2012. But somewhere between 2010-15, the conversation around the AFC East began about who was going to be in the best position to thrive when Brady and Bill Belichick left the Patriots and the division was up for grabs.
No one who worked for the Jets, Bills or Dolphins knew exactly when the Patriots dynasty would end, but it felt as if their stranglehold on the division was going to end at some point in the next few years. Each team plotted to make sure it would be the one that could take over the division.
Well, Brady stayed in New England through 2019 and Belichick may now be in his final weeks as the Patriots coach. As I sat in Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, watching the Dolphins blow out the Jets, it made me think that yet another way to look at the Jets’ recent failures is that they blew their shot at replacing the Patriots on top of the division.
The Bills and Dolphins are clearly way ahead of the Jets right now. You can argue that the Jets would be in contention if Aaron Rodgers had stayed healthy, but that would be a short-term fix. The Jets would go back to the bottom once Rodgers left after a couple of years.
It appears — though you never fully know — that the Bills and Dolphins are set up for long-term success. The Jets? They have some really nice, young players, but there are questions at quarterback, coach and all over the offense.
Basically, the Jets are paying for making monumental draft mistakes at quarterback. First, in 2018, they drafted Sam Darnold at No. 3 overall. The Bills took Josh Allen four picks later. Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in football. Darnold is Brock Purdy’s backup in San Francisco.
After whiffing on Darnold, the Jets moved on and drafted Zach Wilson at No. 2 overall in 2021. Three years into his career, it is clear Wilson is not going to be the franchise quarterback for the Jets.
The Wilson failure led general manager Joe Douglas to trade for Rodgers as a quick fix this season. Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1 and there we were on Sunday, watching the Dolphins tee off on the Jets.
Here is the thing that is tough for the Jets and their fans: the Bills, Dolphins and Jets were all dysfunctional, losing messes at some point during the 2010s.
The Bills went 17 seasons without a playoff appearance between 2000-16. They went through coach after coach and quarterback after quarterback until finally getting Sean McDermott and Allen in place. They have won the division the past three years, and are 8-6 this year and fighting for another division title.
The Dolphins fell off a cliff a few years after Dan Marino retired. They have been to the playoffs just three times in the past 21 seasons. If they make it this season, and they should at 10-4 right now, it will be their first consecutive playoff seasons since 2000-01. They hit on Tua Tagovailoa in the 2020 draft and landed Mike McDaniel as their coach in 2022. Both appear to be in position to be leading the Dolphins for a long, long time.
It is not just coach and quarterback, though, where the Bills and Dolphins seem ahead of the Jets. The Dolphins are loaded on offense with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and a strong line. On defense, Jalen Ramsey looks like an All-Pro again, and they are tough up front with Vic Fangio there as one of the best defensive coordinators.
The Bills have Stefon Diggs, James Cook and good pieces up front along with a defense that has strong players at every level.
The Jets can match both teams on defense, but they are far behind on offense. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall can be stars, but the Jets need to add much more around them. They need at least two new starting offensive linemen and maybe three entering next season. They also need a No. 2 receiver, something that is not easy to find.
It wasn’t so long ago that the AFC East was the Patriots and the three dwarfs. But the Patriots now have faded away, and two of the dwarfs figured things out.
That leaves the Jets looking up at the Dolphins and Bills for who knows how long after spending two decades looking up to Brady and the Patriots.
Allen is 27 years old. Tagovailoa is 25. The Jets may be able to catch them in a single season if Rodgers is healthy next year or in 2025, but it feels as if the Jets are way, way behind when it comes to long-term success in the division.
Want to catch a game? The Jets schedule with links to buy tickets can be found here.
A less-than-bumper crop
A year ago, the Jets had one of the best rookie classes in their history and got major contributions from three of those players.
This year? Not so much.
Second-round pick Joe Tippmann is the only 2023 rookie playing a significant role. He has played well at center for the Jets after taking over the starting spot midway through the season.
Though this year’s first-year class has been underwhelming overall, no one should draw any conclusions yet considering most of the rookies have not been given much of an opportunity.
First-round pick Will McDonald is buried in a deep rotation at defensive end. He has two sacks and has flashed at times. The Jets need him to get stronger to be someone who can play all three downs.
Carter Warren, the fourth-round pick, started two games at offensive tackle, but injured his hip and has been out.
The rest of the group has barely played, some not at all.
Again, it’s way too early to draw conclusions about this draft class, but their impact as rookies has been minimal.
Stat’s so
The Jets put up just 103 total yards in Sunday’s 30-0 defeat to the Dolphins. It was one of the worst offensive performances in franchise history.
Here are their 10 lowest yardage totals ever:
1. Jan. 9, 2022 (at Bills): 53 yards, L, 27-10
2. Dec. 12, 1976 (Bengals): 72 yards, L, 42-3
3. Dec. 10, 2017 (at Broncos): 100 yards, L, 23-0
T-4. Dec. 17, 2023 (at Dolphins): 103 yards, L, 30-0
T-4. Nov. 20, 2022 (at Patriots): 103 yards, L, 10-3
6. Sept. 22, 2019 (at Patriots): 105 yards, L, 30-14
7. Dec. 6, 1964 (at Chargers): 113 yards, L, 38-3
8. Oct. 21, 1973 (at Steelers): 118 yards, L, 26-14
9. Sept. 19, 1971 (at Colts): 118 yards, L, 22-0
10. Oct. 25, 1970 (Bills): 119 yards, L, 10-6
Source: Stathead
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