If you are a sports fan who believes in blessings and curses … or the inevitability of history repeating itself … or in the track records of smart organizations … then you should not be surprised Jordan Love is reshaping the narrative around the blockbuster Aaron Rodgers trade.
Everyone else should be. Especially if you saw Love and the Packers struggle through October.
Love is tied with the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott for the second-highest quarterback rating in the NFL over the past three weeks (116.9), trailing only the 49ers’ Brock Purdy. Prescott and Purdy are MVP front-runners, but the first-year starter Love owns back-to-back three-touchdown, no-interception winning performances over division leaders (Lions and Chiefs), which has positioned the Packers as the NFC’s unlikely final playoff team entering Week 14.
“Six or seven weeks ago, I was like, ‘Damn, I don’t know if he’s going to be able to do this. It doesn’t look good.’ The training wheels were on the offense,’” NBC Sports NFL analyst and retired quarterback Chris Simms told Post Sports+, “But he’s really turned a corner to where I go, ‘They’ve got their guy. This is real. This isn’t just some three-game fantasy.’ I think we’ll see better and better from Jordan Love.”
Love is in the New York spotlight this week for two reasons: First, he will look to stay hot and extinguish the Giants’ faint playoff hopes on “Monday Night Football.” Second, his Packers predecessor Rodgers might shut down his odds-defying attempt to return this season from a torn Achilles because the Jets are a lost cause.
The idea that Love’s Packers could be in the playoffs and Rodgers’ Jets won’t be sounds like a bold preseason prediction supported with “evidence” like the Packers are the Packers and the Jets are the Jets. It still looked as if the Jets had the superior overall roster when Rodgers was injured on Sept. 11, though the AFC is stronger than the NFC.
But quarterback matters most. And while Rodgers’ fill-in Zach Wilson — a starter since Week 1 of his rookie year — struggles, Love is thriving after three years sitting behind Rodgers.
“Jordan is playing at another level the last three games, and it’s the growth pattern that you like to see out of young quarterbacks,” NFL Network analyst and retired quarterback Chase Daniel told Post Sports+. “Not necessarily just throwing the football, because a quarterback is asked to do a lot more than that.
“Especially last game against the Chiefs, I think was his best overall game. They had so many checks at the line of scrimmage that he had a lot of mental gymnastics to go through. They were going on ‘two’ or ‘three’ in the cadence almost every play and he had 2-3 plays [to decide between] on like 60, 70 percent of the snaps.”
As seen below, Love’s first 12 starts of his first season replacing Rodgers match up favorably with Rodgers’ first 12 replacing Brett Favre (after he was traded to the Jets) in 2008:
Love: 6-6 record, 2,866 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 90.2 quarterback rating
Rodgers: 5-7 record, 2,897 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 91.2 quarterback rating
So, maybe the Packers didn’t just dump Rodgers because of his age. Or because of his eccentricities. Or out of spite from broken lines of communication.
Maybe there was wisdom in general manager Brian Gutekunst pushing his chips to the center of the table and signing Love to a bargain one-year extension worth up to $22.5 million in 2024.
“Where I might be critical of Gutekunst and how he handled the Rodgers situation, he deserves tremendous praise for building a super-young, super-talented football team,” Simms said. “At some point you have to get on with your future. From that standpoint, they made the right decision.”
Easier to see now. Nobody could’ve predicted Love’s rise just a month ago, when the Packers were 3-6 after a six-game stretch in which Love threw more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (seven) and had a 73.9 rating.
What changed?
Simms first noticed a more aggressive play-calling approach — suggesting more trust in Love — in Week 10 against the Steelers. Then came Love’s game-winning fourth-quarter drive against the Chargers. Suddenly, the Packers are running one of the league’s more complex offenses.
“Their offense — what they do — is one of the best in football: There are some plays they shift, they motion and then they motion again, and do some crazy exotic stuff off of it,” said Simms, who was in studio for Love’s “Sunday Night Football” masterpiece of improvised arm angles and back-foot-throw adjustments when under pressure against the Chiefs. “He’s ready for more of the offense’s rules, and he’s capable of handling that type of advanced offense.”
The Packers have the NFL’s youngest roster, most notably at pass-catcher. Their top five options are rookies or second-year players.
“It took everybody, including the play-caller, a bit of time to get on the same page and figure out who we are as an offense under Jordan Love,” said Daniel, who breaks down quarterback film on the “Chase Daniel Show” on his YouTube channel. “The Packers are looking toward long-term success and not trying to win now, win now, win now. They’ve slowly and steadily gotten better, and that’s the key to long-term success in this league.”
Whether or not the Packers make the playoffs — and the arrow is pointing up with the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon — an organization that had 31 straight seasons of Hall of Fame quarterbacking between Favre and Rodgers can plan to complement the quarterback (instead of replace him) in the offseason.
One of their main assets will be a second-round pick acquired from the Jets.
On the other hand, the Jets’ hopes are pinned to the 40-year-old Rodgers returning healthy and recapturing his MVP form of 2020 and 2021. How beholden the Jets are to Rodgers will be revealed by whether his support helps the embattled trio of general manager Joe Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett remain in place and by whether they use what likely will be a top-10 draft pick on a quarterback and risk angering Rodgers, as the Packers did by drafting Love in 2020.
“What I love about Jordan is he’s a pretty aggressive decision-maker and he’s fearless,” Simms said. “He wants to throw the ball down the field, which is different from what they’ve done in Green Bay the last few years. One of my complaints the last few years with Rodgers was it was too dink-and-dunk. It’s hard to win playoff games against really good teams throwing 4- and 5-yard passes.
“Jordan doesn’t care who is around him. His eyes stay down the field. If he is about to be hit, but there’s a 30-yard completion to be had down the field, he throws it and takes the hit.”
It will be interesting to see whether Love’s success after three years on the bench has any impact on whether teams are more patient with rookie quarterbacks.
The most likely answer is no — look at rookie C.J. Stroud’s immediate splash for the Texans — but perhaps the best case study will be on the opposing sideline Monday: The Giants could draft and develop a high-first-round quarterback while starting Daniel Jones in 2024.
“Quarterbacks go through different phases,” Daniel said. “Jordan’s was, ‘We are not losing because of him but we are not really winning because of him. You are middle-of-the-road, a game manager, running the offense.’ Now he has taken that next step — and it’s a huge step — to where they are winning games because of him.
“The last three games, he put the team on his back and carried them to victory. They’ve beaten good teams during this winning streak, and that has to mean a world of confidence — not just to Jordan but to the people around him, too.”
Change of scenery
Do you suffer from fatigue of losing? How about role reduction? Is there friction between you and your boss or co-workers? Is there a crowd of people just itching to boo you?
All of these can be reasons for an NFL coach or player to need a change of scenery.
Sports+ made a list of 10 (really, 12) people in the NFL who desperately need new surroundings in 2024. To be clear, these are not people who are washed up and can’t do the job anymore, but rather people who might rediscover their production (or promise) by benefiting from a fresh start:
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick: If Curly Lambeau can leave the Packers, Paul Brown can leave the Browns and Andy Reid can leave the Eagles, Belichick can coach a team other than the Patriots after 24 seasons. He needs to repair some tarnish on his G.O.A.T. legacy by winning without Tom Brady, and it seems “The Patriot Way” of self-sacrifice and secrecy isn’t working like it once did, as former Jets and Bills head coach Rex Ryan recently pointed out on ESPN. There could be some win-now vacancies.
Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr.: A holdover from the Sean Payton era, Carmichael was hired to his current role in 2009. The next longest-tenured offensive coordinator in the NFL is the Bengals’ Brian Callahan (hired in 2019). Carmichael is the designated piñata for an unhappy fan base not quite ready to accept that Drew Brees retired and nobody can work magic to get the same production out of Derek Carr. The Saints rank No. 11 in total offense and No. 19 in scoring.
QBs Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Mac Jones: Let’s group together the top-15 picks made by the Jets, Bears and Patriots, respectively, in 2021. Wilson and Jones have been jerked between starting and the bench multiple times. Fields is likely to be replaced because the Bears will have a top-two pick in the draft (via the Panthers) and perhaps a new head coach who should want a quarterback with five cost-controlled seasons. It’s best for all three to follow fellow 2021 bust Trey Lance’s lead to a second team, though probably as backups.
Raiders WR Davante Adams: Imagine that you ask to be traded away from playing with Aaron Rodgers so that you can reunite with your college quarterback (Derek Carr). You fulfill a best friend’s fantasy by buying the house next door to his. And then…your team cuts that quarterback after one season? That’s what happened to Adams, who is stuck in Las Vegas post-Carr. Luckily for Adams, the Jets might be so desperate in 2024 that they give up the farm to recapture his connection with Rodgers.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs: Major change could be on the horizon in Buffalo. Since the Bills would be crazy to give up quarterback Josh Allen, head coach Sean McDermott could go. It seems Diggs — who has erupted at Allen more than once — needs to go, no matter how many times Allen defends him. His brother Trevon Diggs is trying to lure Stefon to the Cowboys. Diggs should be careful what he wishes for, however, because a quarterback downgrade is likely in most other places. Ask Odell Beckham Jr. how that worked out for him.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler: Are the Chargers about to break up one of the most talented (and underachieving) nuclei in the NFL? Or try to run it back with a new head coach (Belichick, anyone?)? Ekeler didn’t get the contract he wanted in an offseason dispute, missed three of the first four games due to an ankle injury and has seen a dip in his yards per touch (5.4 to 4.7) and touchdowns from scrimmage (38 to five) from the last two seasons to this one. He will be a highly motivated free agent in 2024.
Titans RB Derrick Henry: Father Time is running out on Henry, who already is defying odds by ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards as he nears his 30th birthday. The Titans are closer to starting over than competing after their three-year championship window (2019-21) closed with just one AFC Championship Game appearance. He recently aired his frustrations with losing and execution, so maybe he can join a winner as a free agent in 2024.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Labeled a matchup nightmare before he was the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft, Pitts is trapped in a different sort of nightmare, one of being underutilized over the past two seasons. He is playing 61 percent of the offensive snaps (down from 73 percent as a rookie) and sharing tight-end targets with Patriots castoff Jonnu Smith. Head coach Arthur Smith believes he is the smartest guy in every room, so it’s hard to imagine an adjustment to better capitalize on Pitts’ talent is coming.
Panthers OLB Brian Burns: A divorce is the best-case scenario for both sides, though a tension-raising franchise tag likely will happen first to facilitate a trade. The Panthers, who once turned down two first-round picks from the Rams for Burns, need to recoup some draft assets after draining the coffers to trade up and draft Bryce Young earlier this year. Burns is one of the NFL’s best pass-rushers over the past five seasons, but has never experienced the playoffs.
Bears LB Tremaine Edmunds: After signing the second-largest deal for a defensive player in free agency earlier this year (four years, $72 million), Edmunds ranks No. 74 of 82 linebackers graded by Pro Football Focus. The two-time Pro Bowler with the Bills looks mismatched for a system in which he is asked to be a downhill run-stopper behind a subpar defensive line. Consider it a dual lesson for teams pursuing big names and players chasing the biggest paychecks without looking at the fit.
Best of luck, worst of luck
Maybe it’s actually better to be good than lucky.
NFL manager of football operations data scientist Tom Bliss published a chart this week that calculates the amount of win probability subtracted for each team’s dropped interceptions, dropped passes and missed field goals and extra points, as well as the win probability added when those same three things happen to an opponent. The fourth marker calculated in the formula is fumble recoveries by either team.
The idea is to calculate which teams are catching the most lucky breaks and which are the most star-crossed.
The three teams with the most win probability added over the first 13 weeks are the Packers (174.2 percent), Giants (126 percent) and Chargers (123.3 percent), who had combined for a 15-21 record. The three teams with the most win probably subtracted are the Bears (-97.8 percent), Bills (-118.1 percent) and Vikings (-198.8 percent), who combined for a 16-20 record. Not much of a difference record-wise.
According to NFL data and analytics, the Packers are on pace to be one of the luckiest teams of the past three years while the Vikings are on pace to be the unluckiest.
Here’s where the NFL’s eight best teams fall on the chart: Eagles (fourth, 109.8 percent), Jaguars (seventh, 56.1 percent), Lions (eighth, 41.5 percent), Chiefs (11th, 16.8 percent), Dolphins (20th, -12.7 percent), 49ers (24th, -42.2 percent), Cowboys (25th, -47.8 percent) and Ravens (26th, -59.2 percent).
Heisman history revised
The Heisman Trophy winner usually is a quarterback. The No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft usually is a quarterback.
It used to be a rarity for one person to be both. That’s no longer the case.
If all goes as projected in April, USC’s Caleb Williams — the 2022 Heisman winner — will be the fifth quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since 2018 to have collected the hardware as college football’s most outstanding player.
The others are Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Bryce Young, with Trevor Lawrence (who finished seventh in 2019 and second in 2020) as the lone top-drafted quarterback exception.
“That’s because the college game and the NFL game are becoming more similar than they once were,” one coach said.
Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye — the likely top quarterbacks and top two overall picks in the upcoming draft — are not among the four Heisman finalists headed to New York for Saturday’s ceremony. Those spots went to three quarterbacks likely to be drafted in the first or second round – LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. — and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., a near-certainty to be the top non-quarterback drafted.
From 2000-2017, only four Heisman-winning quarterbacks became No. 1 overall draft picks: Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston.
Where have all the other Heisman-winning quarterbacks since 2000 gone in the draft?
2000: Chris Weinke (fourth-round pick, fifth quarterback in 2001)
2001: Eric Crouch (third-round pick as a converted wide receiver in 2002)
2003: Jason White (undrafted in 2005)
2004: Matt Leinart (No. 10 pick, second quarterback in 2006)
2006: Troy Smith (fifth-round pick, ninth quarterback in 2007)
2007: Tim Tebow (No. 25 pick, second quarterback in 2010)
2011: Robert Griffin III (No. 2 pick, second quarterback in 2012)
2012: Johnny Manziel (No. 22 pick, second quarterback in 2014)
2014: Marcus Mariota (No. 2 pick, second quarterback in 2015)
2016: Lamar Jackson (No. 32 pick, fifth quarterback in 2018)
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