If you look at their record, everything seems just fine for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Buds are 17-9-6 and are sitting in third place in the Atlantic Division, but they’re just six points back of the pace-setting Boston Bruins.
Toronto also boasts the third-best points percentage in the Eastern Conference and the Leafs’ +8 goal difference is the sixth-best mark in the East.
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets prediction
(7 p.m. ET. ESPN+)
Those numbers would seemingly point to Toronto as a contender in a wide-open conference, but the narrative surrounding this team is quite different. Most pundits, fans, and bettors believe that the Leafs have taken a step back in 2023-24 and don’t belong in the heavyweight class of the NHL.
Toronto’s underlying numbers, especially on defense, are mediocre and the team is clearly overly reliant on star players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander to win them games on their own.
A leaky defense, unreliable goaltending and a top-heavy roster makes Toronto a vulnerable favorite. But is it enough to make the Leafs a fade candidate against the struggling Blue Jackets?
The Leafs went into the break with a drama-free win over the Blue Jackets, but a few days prior to that they had one of the wildest games of the season against Columbus.
Toronto was down, 5-0, entering the third period but ended up erasing that deficit only to fall in overtime, 6-5.
That game was a microcosm of Toronto’s season. The defense was leaky, the goaltending was poor, but the headliners woke up in time to salvage a point from out of nowhere.
As important as it is to bank points during this part of the regular season, it is fair to question just how much longer the Leafs can keep up this high-wire act.
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The team has allowed the fifth-most expected goals and high-danger scoring chances over its last 10 games, which is putting a ton of pressure on the offense to provide enough scoring to cover up their defensive misgivings.
The Blue Jackets are in a bad way right now and are missing No. 1 defenseman Zach Werenski, but Toronto’s profile makes them a tough team to back as a big favorite and a good one to take on at big prices.
The Bet: Blue Jackets +172 (FanDuel)
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