Maryland, Iowa among Big Ten Jekyll and Hyde

My colleague Mike Calabrese discussed ACC football futures in a recent version of this column, so I thought I’d break down Big Ten futures for today’s version.

Specifically, I’m eyeing several Big Ten win totals that our Action Analytics team projects value on.

Let’s talk about my favorite Big Ten win total over and my favorite Big Ten win total under.

Betting lines courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Maryland Over 7.5 wins (+140)

The Terrapins will be very weak and inexperienced in the trenches. Four offensive line starters are gone, and there’s a complete rebuild in the front seven.

Usually, I don’t like betting on teams that are weak on the line.

But I’m making an exception. Everything else breaks for the Terps.

Taulia Tagaovailoa, the best quarterback in program history, is back for his third year in College Park. He’s not his brother, but he does have 51 touchdown passes and 7,800 passing yards over the past two years.

They’re pairing Tagovailoa up with new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, the Broyles Award winner with Michigan in 2021. I love him for this job.

The linebacking corps is relatively deep, and the secondary has some talent. Maryland runs a deep-back scheme, so strength in the defense’s second and third levels is the crux of the defense.

I hope the Terps also catch a break this year and see some positive regression. They played Michigan and Ohio State tough last season and lost by two at home to Purdue.

Grab your four-leaf clovers and hope that close-game luck flips this season.

The real MVP of this team is the schedule, which is much easier than last season. The Terps will likely play only three ranked teams all year, and they avoided Iowa and Wisconsin out of the West.

The Terrapins are projected to be favorites in 10 games this year, and they’re projected as double-digit favorites in seven.

They have an uber-easy non-conference schedule with Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. The Terps are 9-2 against the spread in non-con games under head coach Mike Locksley, so a 3-0 start is more than expected.

Throw in Michigan State and Indiana as their first two conference games, and Maryland figures to be 5-0 entering their tilt with Ohio State.

If they can split their games with Illinois (projected as five-point favorites) and Nebraska (projected as seven-point favorites), the Terps should get to eight wins.

The Action Network’s analytics team projects Maryland for 8.6 wins in 2023, so there is a boatload of value in the Over 7.5 mark provided at solid plus-money at BetMGM.

Betting on College Football?

Iowa Under 8.5 wins (-120)

The word “touchdown” isn’t in the Hawkeye dictionary. But the program is trying to force it in there this fall.

Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has to hit 25 points per game this year, or his contract expires. So, talk about motivation.

The offense should improve — emphasis on should — as Iowa returns its entire offensive line and grabbed quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All in the portal from Michigan.

But can we really expect Iowa’s offense to be much better? They were third-to-last in the FBS in Success Rate last year, averaging 17 points per game.

Meanwhile, the defense should regress after they lost Butkus Award winner Jack Campbell, NFL draft choice Lukas Van Ness, and multiyear starting defensive backs Riley Moss and Kaevon Merriweather.

By Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics, Iowa returns the 102nd “most” defensive production in FBS.

Meanwhile, Iowa draws Penn State and Wisconsin on the road, and they play Iowa State in Ames in Week 2. They’re projected as favorites in only five games — the Big Ten West division figures to be tough.

If they could win coin flips against Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue, the Hawkeyes likely cash their win total. But our Action Analytics team makes their win total only 6.8, so grabbing Under 8.5 wins (-120) at BetMGM is a steal.