What if on the dawn of the season, the only fact I told you about the 2023 Mets was that Francisco Alvarez and Kodai Senga would have excellent rookie seasons?
Buck Showalter grinned when I posed this to him. The answer so obvious that he merely said, “Of course.” As in, “Of course, I would have thought we had a terrific year.”
Instead, Alvarez and Senga are central to what a manager must do with a losing team this time of year. Writing out a lineup for a contending skipper in the dog days is easy — play your best players as much as possible to get to October.
But when you show up to a three-game series against the Pirates on Aug. 14 with the same record as the Pirates — again, imagine if I had told you that before the season — then the priorities shift. Among other items about playing time, the Mets are deciding whether it is best for Edwin Diaz’s head to get a few innings in 2023 or would it be better for the closer’s body to just shut him down until next spring.
As prominent, though, as anyone on the roster when it comes to playing time is how much to push Alvarez and Senga in their first full major league season. Showalter, for example, had a late-afternoon meeting with Senga to get the righty’s thoughts on mapping out the rest of his starts.
Senga had regular seasons of as many as 180 innings in Japan, plus he pitched on five championship clubs with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, which meant even more innings in those seasons. But through a translator, he did say that a major league season is different, due to the greater travel and long rain delays and doubleheaders and on three occasions pitching on the MLB standard four days’ rest.
Senga had 122 ²/₃ innings and for the rest of the season, the Mets will make sure to be more judicious; for example, Joey Lucchesi will be re-injected into the rotation soon to provide a sixth starter on occasion.
For his part, Senga said, “Personally. I think it would be best for me to continue. I actually have a lot to learn, with this being my rookie year. I want to know how my body feels at the end of a year after doing a full rotation for the year. I have a lot to learn, a lot to experience, so I would like to keep going.”
Alvarez offered the same sentiment. But already the Mets have begun to lessen his burden. In the Mets’ last push to try to save the season, Alvarez started 10 straight games at catcher through July 15 — the last two, albeit, following the All-Star break. He has not started more than two in a row since. He started his 75th game Monday night. That is the most by a catcher in his age-21 or younger season since 130 by Ivan Rodriguez in 1993.
But Alvarez said to simulate the wear on his body to know for future seasons he has intensified his work in the weight room on days he does not start so as to better prepare for greater usage in future years. The Mets’ target for Alvarez is between 95-110 starts.
Alvarez’s seriousness of purpose at a young age even endeared him to finicky veteran pitchers — back when these Mets still had finicky veteran pitchers. His defensive work has been far better than the advanced billing to go along with 21 homers.
With all the concerns about endurance in a major league rotation, Senga is the lone Mets starter to make it from the outset without going on the injured list. Among major leaguers with at least 120 innings, Senga was eighth in strikeout percentage (28.4), ninth in batting average against (.215) and 15th in ERA (3.30). He and Jose Quintana (barring trades) are the only sure pieces for next year’s Mets rotation and they primarily will be throwing to Alvarez, who as opposed to, say, Brett Baty, established himself as a full-time starter.
Alvarez and Senga both have stuff they can work on as long as they keep playing — Alvarez hitting against lefties and Senga pitching to righties, and both with walks: Senga issuing fewer and Alvarez drawing more to swing more frequently at better pitches.
And both can work their way onto NL Rookie of the Year ballots. Even with a second-half slump, Arizona’s Corbin Carroll is a near lock for the award. But the 30 voters can only vote for three players on a ballot and, for example, the Reds alone have four interesting candidates in Andrew Abbott, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.
But Alvarez and Senga will get strong consideration along with also Colorado’s Ezequiel Tovar, the Dodgers’ Josh Outman, San Francisco’s Patrick Bailey and others. And that is among the shames of this Mets season — Alvarez and Senga are legitimate candidates for Rookie of the Year votes and their team did not maximize their first-year success.
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