Interviewer: What’s your prediction for the fight?
Clubber Lang: My prediction?
Interviewer: Yes, your prediction.
Clubber Lang: Pain!
This is a “Rocky III” kind of offseason. My prediction is pain. Because I can’t remember when so many teams were vying for so few stars. That not only elevates prices (hello, capitalism) but also fans’ expectations (hello, social media).
It feels outsized how many fan bases are expecting Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and/or Juan Soto this offseason. So without a time-share system to allow them to play for various clubs, there is going to be fury when this game of musical chairs stops and a team is standing at a podium not offering a superstar or a strong consolation prize such as Cody Bellinger or Blake Snell.
So, which organizations are facing the most potential pain without large action this offseason:
1. Giants
They’ve made the playoffs once in the past seven seasons, and they have now finished eighth, eighth and 10th in the 15-team NL in attendance the past three seasons. San Francisco failed last offseason with Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, but did bid more than $300 million on each. The Giants should be able to throw money at their problems — Mitch Haniger at $20 million is their highest-paid player in 2024 and by 2026 only Logan Webb ($23 million) is under contract.
The Giants changed managers from Gabe Kapler to Bob Melvin, leaving head of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi next in peril. He is entering his sixth season on the job, and after Webb it would be difficult to determine who the second-best player on the team is … and not because of the abundance of good choices. The expectation from other organizations is that San Francisco will be hyper-aggressive, but does the tough right field at Oracle Ballpark discourage the history-conscious Ohtani from coming?
2. Cubs
When you give a record five-year, $40 million managerial contract to Craig Counsell before you get around to actually firing your manager (David Ross), well, it says you are open for business. Chicago last made the playoffs in a 162-game season in 2018. Bellinger is a free agent, so is Marcus Stroman. They have money, prospects and motivation — having finished one game behind the eventual NL champion Diamondbacks for the final playoff spot in 2023.
3. Yankees
I know their fans think they should be No. 1 at everything, but they did reach the ALCS in 2022 and just ended a six-year playoff run. But they are the Yankees, and after promising big changes and delivering none to date, Hal Steinbrenner only has one way to alter the conversation — bring in stars, a tactic he has used in the past. Aaron Boone is entering his final contract season. Brian Cashman is on thinner ice than ever. Signing Jeimar Candelario and Kevin Kiermaier, and trading for Dylan Cease isn’t going to make the noise stop.
4. Red Sox: Chaim Bloom did not receive the same benefit of the doubt as Zaidi; Bloom was removed. Craig Breslow took over as head of baseball operations for the strange Red Sox, who have won two championships in the past 14 seasons but also missed the playoffs nine times with six last-place finishes, including each of the past two seasons. They fell to 12th in payroll last season as questions persist if the John Henry-led ownership has lost interest in this club with involvement in so many other sports. Boston needs at least one and probably two starters, and at least one and probably two bats.
5. Padres: Do they have to cut $50 million in payroll? Do they look at the bizarre 2-12 record in extra innings and 9-23 in one-run games and believe 2023 was a fluke, and try to keep as much of the roster together as possible? Snell and Josh Hader are free agents. The mega-financial investments in Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., and in prospect capital for Soto only makes sense if they win in the short term. That didn’t happen in 2023. It just feels like San Diego has to add too much (including three starters) while reducing some payroll that trading Soto will become necessary.
6. Cardinals: Can you promise Paris and give Peoria? After their worst winning percentage since 1995, the Cardinals promised upgrades, particularly to their rotation, and (to date) brought in a couple of 35-year-old innings-eaters who combined for a 5.22 ERA (Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn). They have position players to trade, but how good are any of them?
7. Blue Jays: Toronto has a powerful beginning point — four starters signed to good contracts (Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi). But the powerhouse offense has slowly ebbed as Vlad Guerrero Jr. has been fine rather than great, Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel were traded for Daulton Varsho, and George Springer has begun to decline. They have not won a playoff game since 2016. This organization has made less out of more, and if that doesn’t change, GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider are going to feel the heat.
8. Mets: They were the no-question No. 1 here last offseason, but by altering their perspective to a more long-range vision, they have reduced some immediate heat. Yet, they are still likely to exceed a $300 million payroll for luxury-tax purposes (albeit with lots of dead money for Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, etc.). Steve Cohen and David Steans said they are not punting on 2024. Thus, can we end up with something that has never fully occurred previously — a full-out New York-New York free-agent battle, in this case for Yamamoto?
9. Dodgers: They still have just one World Series title since 1988, coming in the 60-game pandemic campaign. They have won at least 100 games in the past four 162-game seasons, but then went 8-15 in those postseasons. No team has been more tied to Ohtani. But he won’t pitch in 2024, and the Dodgers will still need to add at least two starters. They have money and a deep farm system. The two winningest teams since 2013 are the Dodgers (1,031 victories) and the Yankees (940), yet they have combined for one championship.
10. Mariners: They have appeared in the playoffs once since 2001. Like Toronto, Seattle has a comfortably locked-in 2024 rotation, but also, like Toronto, it feels Seattle is underperforming its potential. The Mariners need better offense, but Teoscar Hernandez is a free agent and Eugenio Suarez was traded, though that should provide more dollars to chase answers.
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