It seems 18-leg parlays never win unless you’re this person.
One bettor turned $150 into $45,125.35 by hitting this wild parlay during the 49ers-Vikings “Monday Night Football’ game.
The 18-leg parlay featured mostly player props, with a small addition of the under 44.5 total points for the game.
That might seem subtle, but this is another instance of a bettor who knows how to place parlays the right way.
Parlays are mostly losing bets, but in this case parlaying some overs with the under for the game implies contrasting lines, confusing the online sportsbook’s algorithm and increasing the parlay’s odds at a higher than normal rate.
Parlays are mostly how books make their money, but when looking for a small edge, this is the best way to do it.
Below is the full parlay, placed on FanDuel Sportsbook, which had odds of 286/1.
- Kirk Cousins 200+ passing yards
- Brock Purdy 200+ passing yards
- Christian McCaffrey 40+ rushing yards
- Brandon Aiyuk 50+ receiving yards
- Brock Purdy 1+ passing touchdowns
- Kirk Cousins 1+ passing touchdowns
- Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions
- George Kittle over 4.5 receptions
- T.J. Hockenson over 5.5 receptions
- Under 43.5 total points
- Alexander Mattison 25+ rushing yards
- Jauan Jennings over 2.5 receptions
- T.J. Hockenson 40+ receiving yards
Many will laugh at these types of bettors, who say that this was a fool’s bet that happened to win this time, but parlaying 17 overs in player props with the under total is a massive boost in odds for the bettor and clearly +EV (expected value).
And all you need are some red-zone turnovers to make it a reality.
The bettor barely escaped, as the under was a 49ers touchdown away from going down in flames.
But that’s how these types of bets work.
Betting on the NFL?
You’re expecting offensive production with field goals, turnovers (there were four) and fewer big plays.
We saw a similar sharp tactic used recently that resulted in a payout of $264,000 at +5198 odds on an aggressive $5,000 bet.
For anyone that says that parlays are always a suckers bet, think again.
Contrasting narratives is the key to a big payday when betting on same-game parlays.
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