A couple of days ago, it looked like a certainty that the Boston Bruins would win the Atlantic Division and play the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But the Florida Panthers got hot down the stretch and the Bruins folded, allowing the former to nick the banner in Game No. 82.
The result is Boston gets to play the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 1.
Bookmakers view this as a virtual toss-up, with the Bruins sitting as a nominal -120 favorite at FanDuel.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs series odds
| Series spread | Series odds | Series games |
|---|---|---|
| Bruins -1.5 (+172) | Bruins (-120) | o5.5 (-188) |
| Maple Leafs +1.5 (-215) | Maple Leafs (+100) | u5.5 (+152) |
The Bruins have been ahead of the Maple Leafs in the standings for virtually the entire season, but the betting market tells us just how tough this thing is to call.
Both teams have clear advantages, so you’ll certainly here plenty of fans, pundits and handicappers on both sides of this equation.
Offense and starpower drive the bus for the Maple Leafs.
Toronto is led by Auston Matthews, the league’s most prolific goalscorer, and a supporting cast that features playmaking whizzes Mitch Marner and William Nylander.
Toronto’s depth scoring has been an issue for the team in past playoffs, so Tyler Bertuzzi, John Tavares, Max Domi and Matthew Knies will be under plenty of pressure to provide support.
The Bruins have some sizzle of of their own at the top of their lineup with David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, but it’s the blueline and goaltending that makes Boston a true heavyweight.
Charlie McAvoy is one of the league’s best defensemen and he’s got plenty of help with Hampus Lindholm, Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo on the back-end.
Boston’s blueline is on another level compared to Toronto’s, but the biggest mismatch in this series projects to be in goal. Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark were fabulous again in 2023-24, while Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll have traded ups with downs all season.
The goaltending disparity is the most actionable edge in this series and I think it’s wide enough to make the -120 series price on Boston palatable.
Aside from betting the Bruins to win the best-of-seven, there are a couple of player props that are also worth exploring.
First up is Brad Marchand to lead the series in goals, which is sitting at +1700 (FanDuel). I think that is worth a sprinkle, even if he’s got to beat out Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak.
Marchand is a proven postseason powerhouse with 32 goals in his last 62 contests. Boston only played 14 total playoff games the last two campaigns, but it wasn’t Marchand’s fault they didn’t go further as he notched eight goals in that span.
Betting on the NHL?
The second prop I’ll play before this series is Charlie McAvoy to win the Conn Smythe, which is given to the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Bruins have several players who could win this award if they hoist the Cup, but McAvoy’s odds make him the best option.
He’s 100/1, which is exponentially longer than Pastrnak, Marchand or the goalies.
And since we think the goaltenders will split duties in the tournament, you can cross them off the list.
That leaves Pastrnak, Marchand, and McAvoy in the running, and of those three, I think McAvoy has a good chance to have the biggest impact on a deep run.
He is a monster on the blueline that plays a ton of minutes and will get on the scoresheet, as well.
There is no positional bias when it comes to the Conn Smythe, but oddsmakers always list defensemen at much deeper odds.
The Bet(s): Boston Bruins series moneyline (-120, FanDuel); Brad Marchand most goals in series (17/1, DraftKings); Charlie McAvoy to win the Conn Smythe Award (100/1, BetRivers)
Read more
