North Carolina vs. UConn prediction: College basketball odds, pick

The Jimmy V Classic tips off from the legendary Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.

After Florida Atlantic battles Illinois in the first game, No. 9 North Carolina squares off against No. 5 Connecticut. 

I really like this matchup for the Huskies, who are in a classic bounce-back spot after losing to Kansas and have the schematic advantages necessary to take advantage of an overvalued Tar Heels unit. 

Barring injury trouble, I expect the Huskies to roll.

North Carolina vs Connecticut odds

(via BetMGM)

North Carolina vs Connecticut prediction

(9 p.m. ET. ESPN)

The Huskies finally dropped their first non-conference matchup in 24 tries — including last year’s NCAA Tournament championship run — last time out against Kansas.

So, it’s our first opportunity in a long time to target Connecticut in a classic bounce-back spot. 

I also quite like the matchup for the Huskies. 

Dan Hurley’s crew runs plenty of handoffs, cutting, off-screen and post-up sets to generate interior and perimeter buckets. It’s a complex motion offense that won a national championship last year. 

North Carolina has been excellent at defending against handoff actions. Still, the Heels have been mediocre against cutters (1.17 points per possession allowed, 49th percentile) and post-ups (.92 PPP allowed, 30th percentile) while grading out horrifically against off-screen actions (1.4 PPP allowed, second percentile). 

I realize I just threw some random numbers at you, but to put it more simply: The Huskies’ offense will play against the Tar Heels. 

On the other end of the floor, I think the Heels struggle to run their own sets against UConn. 

North Carolina likes to run the floor with its RJ Davis-Cormac Ryan-Elliot Cadeau three-guard attack while funneling the ball to Armando Bacot in the post.

So far, it’s been working well, with the Heels scoring at will (86 points per game). 

But the Huskies are a rock-solid transition defense, and because of their slow pace (279th nationally in tempo), they allow only six fast-break points per game (91st percentile). 

Plus, the Huskies rank among the nation’s best post defenses (0.68 post-up PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), as the monstrous 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan hounds the paint and protects the rim. 

I expect the Huskies to mess with the flow of UNC’s up-tempo offense while holding their own against Bacot down low. 

That’s what fellow Big East team Villanova did in its two-point overtime win over North Carolina, holding the Heels to only six fast-break points and Bacot to only eight overall. 

While I love UConn and have already bet on the Huskies here, there is an unfortunate catch. 

Four key UConn players are listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup: Donovan Clingan (toe), Cam Spencer (toe), Alex Karaban (finger) and Stephon Castle (knee). 

That’s brutal and could cost the Huskies this game. 

Ultimately, I’d still back UConn at the current market number if at least Clingan and Spencer can go. Clingan is instrumental in Connecticut’s interior offense and defense – the latter being important in defending Bacot – and Spencer is crucial for the Huskies’ perimeter shooting. 

Betting on College Basketball?

If those two are ruled out, I’ll likely buy out of my position on the Huskies. 

So, monitor the injury report closely before laying the points with the defending national champs. Let’s hope health isn’t a factor in this monster early-season college basketball matchup.

North Carolina vs. Connecticut pick

UConn -5.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook) IF Clingan and Spencer are playing