The run has been absurd, yet underappreciated.
Since 2012, Ohio State is one of just two teams in the nation that never has lost more than two games in a season (you can guess the other). Since 2004, the Buckeyes have been the most dominant team in conference play, earning at least a share of first place in the Big Ten in all but two of those seasons.
Outside of a one-season hiccup in 2011, between Jim Tressel’s resignation and Urban Meyer’s departure, the Buckeyes were the team to beat in the Big Ten for a decade and a half. That has continued under Ryan Day, as Ohio State won its first 22 league games under the first-time head coach.
Then, Michigan finally took down its rival in 2021. Last season, the Wolverines upset the Buckeyes again.
And now, No. 7 Penn State is prepared to do the same.
The No. 3 Buckeyes haven’t just lost their aura, but also their explosiveness. Despite featuring the best wide receiver in the nation, Marvin Harrison Jr., and having played the softest part of its schedule, Ohio State’s offense is currently ranked 29th in the nation.
In the past seven years, the Buckeyes have never finished lower than ninth, occupying a top-two spot on three occasions.
Ohio State needed a miracle to beat Notre Dame. It trailed Maryland at home in the second half. It was held to 23 points against Indiana’s 121st-ranked defense.
Penn State presents the best defense Ohio State has faced this season. The Nittany Lions have the top-ranked pass defense, while also topping FBS in sacks and tackles for loss. They rank second in points allowed per game (8.2) and in rushing yards per game, while sitting among the top 10 in takeaways per game (2.2).
A suspect Ohio State offensive line will struggle to give Kyle McCord time against Penn State, which has scored at least 30 points in 13 straight games — including last month against Iowa’s eighth-ranked defense — and has the second-best scoring margin (32.4) in the nation.
The talent gap has shrunk. The Buckeyes are battling injuries. The Nittany Lions — who have lost six straight in the series by an average of eight points — came close last season, holding a fourth-quarter lead.
This year, Penn State (+4.5) will finish the job.
INDIANA (+4.5) over Rutgers
I am not ready to live in a world in which 86 percent of bettors back Rutgers.
Central Florida (+18.5) over OKLAHOMA
It doesn’t feel like it, but the Sooners’ schedule has featured other games besides the Red River Shootout. The uninspired efforts against SMU and Cincinnati matter just as much as the upset of Texas.
Tennessee (+8.5) over ALABAMA
Last year, the Volunteers pulled off a 52-49 upset. This year, expect a low-scoring brawl. Alabama can’t count on its ground game to carry the offense against Tennessee’s 16th-ranked run defense, putting pressure on its unreliable quarterback, Jalen Milroe, who will be facing an active defensive front that has averaged 3.4 sacks per game.
Washington State (+20) over OREGON
The Ducks will mimic the schemes used by UCLA and Arizona against Washington State, which has struggled to move the ball when defenders drop into coverage. Three weeks should be enough time for the Cougars to figure out how to run the ball.
IOWA (-3.5) over MINNESOTA
The line is hard to justify, given that Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is 0-6 against the Hawkeyes (6-1) and the Golden Gophers (3-3) haven’t won at Iowa since 1999. Let’s take a moment to stop bashing Iowa’s embarrassing offense and embrace its top 10 defense, which could put the Hawkeyes back in the Big Ten title game.
HOUSTON (+23.5) over Texas
The Cougars, who are averaging more than 400 yards per game, will land some blows. Former Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith has completed 82 of 108 passes (75.9 percent) for 883 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions over the past three games.
NORTH CAROLINA (-23.5) over Virginia
The Cavaliers are allowing more than 35 points per game. Tar Heels receiver Tez Walker, fresh off 132 yards and three touchdowns against Miami in his second game of the season, will make up for lost time.
Mississippi (-6.5) over AUBURN
It has been eight years since the Rebels have left Jordan-Hare Stadium with a win. The Tigers’ 119th-ranked offense isn’t built to keep pace with Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and keep the streak alive.
Michigan (-24.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
The Wolverines have no wins of note, but becoming the first team in at least 87 years to score at least 30 points and allow no more than 10 points in each of their first seven games warrants mentioning. The Spartans should be safe from their biggest loss in the rivalry (119-0 in 1902).
Duke (+14.5) over FLORIDA STATE
The potential absence of Duke quarterback Riley Leonard may prevent the opportunity for an upset, but the Blue Devils’ fourth-ranked defense, which is allowing 10.4 points per game, will keep this game close. Congratulations to whichever school steals Duke coach Mike Elko away next season.
LSU (-31.5) over Army
Any team with a decent aerial attack can give the Tigers fits. But Auburn and its 130th-ranked passing offense lost by 30 last week. Army’s 129th-ranked unit is next.
Clemson (-3) over MIAMI
The Tigers have had two weeks to prepare for a team in disarray, and which they throttled, 40-10, last season.
Betting on College Football?
Utah (+7) over USC
There’s no need to mock the Trojans’ defense anymore. They serve up their own punch lines, having allowed at least 41 points in three straight games. What’s truly stunning is the depths the offense sunk to last week against Notre Dame, with Caleb Williams intercepted three times and sacked six times. The Utes’ defense, which is tops in the Pac-12, ranked fourth in the nation with four sacks per game and among the top 25 in interceptions, should end any hope of Williams’ bid to repeat as Heisman Trophy winner.
Arizona State (+26.5) over WASHINGTON
The Huskies just won the most enthralling game of the season, last week over Oregon. The playoff is in sight. They are a top-five team for the first time in seven years. Michael Penix Jr. is the front-runner to become the first Heisman winner from Washington. It’s natural to take a matchup against the Sun Devils (1-5) lightly.
Best bets: Penn State, North Carolina, LSU
This season: 51-51-3 (8-12-1)
2014-22 record: 1,150-1,082-25
Read more
