No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington is the biggest game of the weekend and if you love college football you’ve already got it circled on your calendar.
You certainly don’t need me to hype it up, so let’s get right to the pick.
Not only am I expecting the Ducks to cover (+3) and improve to 6-0 ATS, I’m also backing them on the moneyline (+125).
Heisman contenders Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. get all the love – and deservedly so – but I’m backing Oregon because of its defense.
Both offenses are explosive.
Oregon ranks No. 2 in the country in points per game (51.6), Washington is second (46).
Washington is No. 1 in the country in yards per game (569.4), Oregon is second (557.8).
It’s obvious why the over/under is in the upper 60s.
That being said, this game is likely going to hinge on which defense is able to get a couple stops.
Washington’s offense will present Oregon’s defense with its toughest task to date, but the Ducks defense enters this game with momentum.
Oregon has held its opponents to 10 points or fewer in four of its five games this season.
The Ducks are also allowing just 255.6 yards (sixth-best in the country) and 11.8 points (fifth-best in the country) per game this season.
Khyree Jackson, a transfer from Alabama, is one of the top corners in the Pac-12 and has a chance to solidify himself as the top corner in the conference if he can help shut down Washington’s aerial assault.
Penix has already thrown for 1,999 yards and 16 touchdowns this season.
He’s completing 74.7% of his passes and shredding opponents through the air.
The Huskies also boast the top receiving room in the conference – and possibly the nation – as each of their top four receivers is averaging more than 13 yards per catch.
Covering all of Washington’s playmakers is a tough task, so Oregon’s defensive line will have to help the secondary.
The Ducks have done a much better job of pressuring the quarterback this season than they did last season.
Oregon is tied for second in the Pac-12 with 18 sacks and will need to get to Penix without blitzing to allow its other seven defenders to play coverage.
Of course, that’s easier said than done as Penix has been sacked just three times all season.
Nix, who has thrown for 1,459 yards and 15 touchdowns, may not hit as many explosive plays as Penix, but leads a more balanced attack.
Nix has thrown just one interception this season and is completing a ridiculous 80.4% of his passes.
The Ducks are averaging 330.6 passing yards per game, but also lead the Pac-12 with 227.2 rushing yards per game.
That leads us to a Washington defense that ranks sixth in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game allowed (121.6).
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If you’re into advanced metrics, Washington’s defense ranks 115th in rushing success rate allowed, while Oregon’s offense ranks second in rushing success rate.
Oregon’s tandem of Bucky Irving, who is averaging 7.9 yards per carry, and Jordan James (8.7 yards per carry) should find success against Washington’s defense.
Not only will that help the Ducks move down the field, but it’ll also limit Washington’s possessions.
By no means am I saying the Ducks are going to grind this game to a halt and treat it like a Big Ten affair, but taking a couple minutes off the clock here and there, possibly robbing the Huskies of a possession or two, could go a long way toward determining the outcome.
These offenses are going to put up points, but if Oregon can run the ball on offense and pressure Penix on defense, it should leave Seattle with a massive win.
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