One of the biggest rivalries in college football happens this week, as Oklahoma visits border rival Texas for the Red River Showdown.
These two foes first played each other in 1900, and they’ve matched up on the second Saturday in October every year since 1934.
Oklahoma and Texas have played 118 games against each other, with the Horns leading the series 63-50-5.
Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction
Both teams are nationally relevant for the first time in a few seasons.
Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns enter this matchup No. 3 in the AP Poll, while Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) with the second-largest ATS cover margin in the nation (+14 PPG).
That said, I think the Sooners’ success is less sustainable, and I expect their hot start to stall Saturday in Austin.
Let’s take a deep look at Oklahoma’s resume.
The Sooners are 5-0.
They beat up on doormats in Arkansas State and Tulsa (which was fielding a backup quarterback) by a combined score of 139-17.
They then beat SMU by 17 as 16.5-point favorites despite being out-gained (367 total yards to 365) and trailing in the fourth quarter.
They then beat Cincinnati by 14 despite the Bearcats scoring only six points on six drives inside the OU 40-yard line, including only three points on their final four red-zone drives.
They crushed Iowa State but managed a pick-six and a blocked-punt safety in the game, inflating the final score.
The Sooners are now +8 in turnover differential, and some balls are bound to bounce the other way.
Per Power Rankings Guru, the Sooners have played FBS’s 53rd most difficult schedule. They’ve played zero top-40 SP+ offenses and only one top-40 SP+ defense.
So, while Oklahoma boasts impressive numbers, including top-five marks in EPA per Play and top-10 marks in EPA per Play allowed, flukey results against inferior competitors have inflated their stats.
I love Gabriel and think he’s a legitimate Heisman contender. And it seems like linebacker Danny Stutsman is turning into the classic Brent Venables defensive captain (26 tackles, 10 pressures, 90.0 PFF Run Defense grade through five games).
But I suspect the Sooners are overvalued based on misleading box scores, and I think the public is far too in love with Oklahoma.
Regression is coming in Norman, especially with a more difficult schedule, and Texas will be, by far, the most impressive opponent Oklahoma has faced this year.
Meanwhile, I think Texas’ resume is far more impressive.
The Horns have wins over two ranked teams in Alabama and Kansas with no wacky results, dominating every game on the scoreboard and in the box score by never posting a post-game win expectancy mark under 65%.
Per Power Rankings Guru, Texas has played FBS’s 13th-most difficult schedule, yet they’ve been just as impressive as any college football team.
And, from a pure talent perspective, Texas boasts a far more impressive roster.
This is arguably the most talented team in college football.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers looks excellent.
He’s found more consistency with his deep ball, saving the ‘Horns in Passing Downs (15th in EPA per Passing Down) even as the running game struggles to find consistency (73rd in Rush Success Rate).
The offensive line is experienced and elite, led by right tackle Christian Jones (81.8 PFF Pass Blocking grade).
The wide receiving corps is deep and explosive, led by Xavier Worthy (345 yards, 26 receptions, 13.3 YPR) and Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell (321 yards, 22 receptions, 14.6 YPR).
10 starters returned from last year’s offense, and Steve Sarkisian’s more experienced unit is much improved.
The defense returned only six starters from 2022, but defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski made some savvy portal moves that have already paid off (Gavin Holmes, Trill Carter).
Kwiatkowski is also an excellent coach, and he’s morphing this talented unit into one of the nation’s best. The Longhorns rank eighth nationally in EPA per Play allowed and fourth in Success Rate allowed.
The defensive line tandem of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy has been highly productive in both the pass-rush game (17 combined pressures) and the run-stop game (19 combined run stops).
Meanwhile, senior linebacker Jaylan Ford has proven himself a capable defensive captain, leading the team in run stops (16) and tackles (20). He’s seemingly everywhere at once, making crucial plays in every phase.
A big part of the Longhorns’ defensive success this year is turning pressures into sacks, something they couldn’t do last season.
The front seven is capitalizing, ranking 30th nationally in total pressures created (51) and 18th in total sacks (18).
That’ll be huge against Gabriel, who struggles under pressure. He completed only 33% of his passes under pressure last season (97 dropbacks) and is at only 52% this year (36 dropbacks).
Again, Oklahoma hasn’t played many elite teams or defenses yet, so he’s been under pressure on only 20% of his dropbacks, the third-lowest rate among qualified FBS quarterbacks.
He could see a huge drop in efficiency with a dominant ‘Horns front in his face.
Texas’ defensive numbers are elite, and the stats have come against dangerous offenses. Texas held Alabama and Kansas, two top-25 offenses by ESPN’s SP+ model, to a combined 38 points and -0.10 EPA per Play.
This unit can hang with Gabriel and Co.
Betting on College Football?
It’s worth mentioning that, despite playing inferior offenses, Oklahoma’s front seven ranks sub-80th nationally in total pressures (39) and sub-100th nationally in total sacks (7).
Good luck stopping Ewers if you can’t make him uncomfortable, as he has a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket this year.
Ultimately, the Longhorns look like the third-best team in college football, with the statistical profile and signature victories to back it up.
I think Oklahoma is overvalued. Based on their performances and results against a weak strength of schedule, I don’t believe this is a top-10 team yet.
I could be wrong, and this is the opportunity for Oklahoma to prove the world wrong and earn their first signature victory.
But I’m willing to place my hard-earned money behind my take and bet the Horns to beat another legitimate competitor by a touchdown or more.
The Action Network’s analytics team projects the Longhorns as 7.7-point favorites, so I’d recommend betting Texas at -7 or better.
Oklahoma vs. Texas pick
Texas -6.5 | Play to -7
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