Thursday Night Football is back this week with a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) and the New Orleans Saints (3-3) that should be quite competitive.
Let’s dig in and look for some PrizePicks winners.
Christian Kirk over 51.5 receiving yards
This game could be on the uglier side of things, but there is still room for optimism that Kirk can tally more than 51.5 receiving yards.
The Saints have given up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game this season, but the sample size, while growing, is still only six games.
For better context, New Orleans has faced Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud and Baker Mayfield.
That’s a pretty darn good draw. Are there any top-10 offenses or quarterbacks in there? Nope.
The Saints still have an above-average defense, but I still like Kirk to hit his over in this spot, regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Jaguars. Coach Doug Pederson told ESPN Thursday morning he expects Trevor Lawrence to start.
The Saints don’t give up a ton of targets to players lined up out wide, but they yield the third-highest target share (37.1%) to slot receivers.
Kirk has run 75% of his routes from the slot across the last two weeks while Zay Jones has been banged up or sidelined.
Jones is out Thursday.
Kirk has been equally effective (and arguably better) than Calvin Ridley this season.
Ridley has also run just 16% of his snaps from the slot, and I expect Lawrence to take what New Orleans gives him – and it should be through the slot.
Chris Olave over 62.5 receiving yards
The Jaguars have been fairly stingy defensively (mostly against the run) and league average or worse against many defensive receiving metrics.
One area that stands out is air yards, as teams have continued to attack the Jacksonville secondary by posting the fifth-most against them this season.
The Jags also yield the fourth-most receiving yards per game.
Olave had two duds during weird game scripts this season, but those could have also occurred when Derek Carr was not as healthy.
Stream the game live on Thursday night on Amazon Prime Video
With Carr throwing for more than 350 yards last week, It’s safe to assume the quarterback is back to full health.
Somehow, no Saints’ game has eclipsed 37 total points this season, but that hasn’t stopped Olave from being a huge target hog.
He has at least 10 targets and 86 yards in three of his six games this season.
Surprisingly, the Saints lead the league in air yards with Olave ranking second individually.
Betting on the NFL?
Travis Etienne under 18.5 rushing yards in first 5 attempts
This is always a fun one. Etienne has had the most volume in the NFL at his position, and he’s always a threat to hit the home run.
If he does, I’m thinking his splash play could come later in the game when New Orleans is fatigued.
The Saints have been very good against the run this season.
Via Fantasy Points Data, they own the fifth-best YBC/Att (yards before contact per attempt) on this week’s slate.
I think we’ll see them at their best during the first couple of drives with the home crowd roaring.
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