Happy holidays! Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up with three games on Christmas Day:
- Raiders vs. Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET
- Giants vs. Eagles, 4:30 ET
- Ravens vs. 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET
Let’s take a look at three of my favorite projections to target on PrizePicks.
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) more than 67.5 receiving yards
Rice has seen his role grow tremendously as the season has progressed. Over the past four weeks, he has earned an incredible 38 targets while leading the team with a 27.5% target share.
The rookie wideout has been Patrick Mahomes’ first read on a whopping 32.7% of his drop-backs in that timeframe. If Rice had posted that same first-read rate over the full season, he would rank 11th in the league, just behind the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown and ahead of the Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb.
His breakout began against this same Raiders defense in Week 12 when he posted eight receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown.
Rice has averaged 83.5 receiving yards in the four games since. He has eclipsed the 67.5 receiving yards projection in three of those four games, and the one time he came up short he was just 3.5 yards shy of the projection.
Assuming his recent volume holds up, Rice should be able to beat this projection of 67.5 receiving yards.
Darren Waller (Giants) more than 3.5 receptions
The Giants tight end missed five games because of a hamstring injury earlier this season. Waller returned in Week 15 against the Saints and hauled in four receptions for 40 yards.
He posted that production despite playing just 42% of the snaps. The Giants have clearly been cautious in bringing him back, as Waller played on at least 80% of snaps in six of seven games to begin the season. He should be in for increased playing time as he continues to move further away from the injury.
Waller has topped 3.5 receptions in five of eight healthy games this season despite spotty quarterback play from Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor earlier in the year. Tommy DeVito has arguably played better than any other QB to suit up for the Giants this season.
The Giants wide receivers room lacks talent and Waller should have no trouble earning targets from DeVito this week. The game script should feature heavy pass volume for the Giants, as they project to be playing from behind.
Waller should see his playing time tick up in this game and he could be featured as the top option in the passing game, allowing him to easily rack up more than 3.5 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards
McCaffrey leads the NFL with 1,801 scrimmage yards this season. Going into the week, he had racked up nearly 250 more scrimmage yards than his closest competitor, Tyreek Hill.
McCaffrey has averaged more than 128 rushing + receiving yards per game this season, and he has recorded more than 120.5 yards in eight of 14 games. In the two of those games he fell short of this projection he missed by fewer than 3 yards.
The All-Pro running back has at least 121 scrimmage yards in five of his last six games, including in each of the last four games.
Baltimore should be able to push back against the Niners and keep this game relatively close into the fourth quarter, which would help secure a huge workload for McCaffrey.
The Ravens defense is a difficult matchup as they rank top 10 in yards allowed on the ground and through the air, but the Niners will surely find a way to get McCaffrey in open space where he can win in any matchup.
Expect McCaffrey to rack up more than 120.5 rushing + receiving yards in what should be a competitive game to close out Week 16.
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