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Cubs vs. Brewers pick
Chicago’s recent slide is not due to a lack of offense. They put up 14 runs in their three-game set against the Braves, but they also allowed 18.
As for their offensive outlook tonight, there are multiple factors to consider. The first and perhaps the one intangible that may weigh the most tonight is the overall moral of the Cubs lineup.
Chicago is down in the dumps after a deflating sweep that likely ended their season. On top of that, they had to get on a flight late last night and go from Atlanta to Milwaukee to begin this series. At this point in the season, the travel can weigh on a club, and it would not be surprising to see them come out sluggish in this matchup.
The next factor is that they are facing Colin Rea for the first time all season. Despite being in the same division, the Cubs have not seen Rea all season, and it just so happens that the Brewers sinkerballer is due for some positive regression.
As for the Brew Crew, they get the advantageous side of the intangibles for this matchup. They get to stay at home and be well-rested for this matchup.
Speaking of the matchup, they get to see a very familiar face as Kyle Hendricks will take the hill for Chicago. Milwaukee has seen a ton of “The Professor,” and they are due for some better results against him.
The Brewers have faced Hendricks a whopping 154 times as a team. In that span, their contact has been relatively weak, but they have put the ball in play a good deal of the time.
Their xBA is 20 points higher than their actual average against him, and their xSLG is 57 points higher than their actual team slugging percentage. Expect some of that positive regression to show up tonight.
Pick: Brewers ML -115
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