Welcome, welcome, welcome. Happy fantasy football playoffs, and may the odds be ever in your favor.
This is the Hunger Games portion of our regularly schedule football season, and as much as most fantasy managers stress and moan as if every week is do-or-die, well, now every week is pretty much do-or-die.
Unless … unless you already died because you didn’t make the playoffs. But fear not! There still is the wonderful world of DFS to explore, where you can continue to play even in your fantasy afterlife.
There are some who like the 50/50 games — minimal prize money, but almost half the entries actually win. But the Madman prefers the all-or-nothing approach fund in large tournaments — where the payouts are large but the amount of entries that win is only roughly 20 percent, and the number that win big money a scant few.
But that’s why they call it gambling … we mean, a game of chance, because chances are, you’re going to lose. Counterintuitively, when gunning for the jackpots, you are looking for a unique lineup. Essentially, to increase your chances to win big, you lower your chance topping the payline.
In our quest to press our luck, our primary stack won’t be from the most popular game of the week — Cowboys at Bills. Instead, we’re going to look toward Commanders at Rams.
Sam Howell continues to fly under the radar despite being the QB7 on the season, but 11 others are more expensive this week at DraftKings. We want to pair him with a pass-catcher, so we pick Terry McLaurin. He has been bad for a month and is coming off a donut, so we’re going to lean into a rebound performance while many others fade.
On the opposite side, we go with Kyren Williams, our favorite running back this week outside of the unaffordable Christian McCaffrey. Speaking of unaffordable, we wanted to go heavier with this stack, but that would involve using one of the expensive Rams receivers. Instead, we wanted to use that salary-cap space on the red-hot CeeDee Lamb.
We don’t want too much exposure to what we think will be the most popular game, but we don’t mind having a flier opposite Lamb. Looking for a lower usage rates, we opt for Bills WR Khalil Shakir, giving us a ’Boys-Bills mini-stack.
To fill out our roster, we take cheap RB Tyler Allgeier, who is facing a bad Panthers run defense and could get extra work if the Falcons are playing from ahead, as expected.
We like the amount of work tight end David Njoku got with Joe Flacco at QB last week, so we dip back into that well. With Tyreek Hill dealing with an ankle issue and the Dolphins looking dysfunctional with him out or limited, we like the affordable Jets DST.
Betting on the NFL?
Leaving us with just enough room to add Garrett Wilson as the Flex, hoping Zach Wilson has another carefree, productive week.
Now let’s hope this roster catches fire.
Big Weeks
D’Andre Swift RB, Eagles, at Seahawks (FanDuel $7,300/DraftKings $6,100)
It’s been a rough go of late for Swift, but he’s had some stiff matchups. Gets a reprieve Monday against a loose Seahawks run-stopping unit in a game in which Philly, presumably, won’t fall so far behind.
Zay Flowers WR, Ravens, at Jaguars (FD $6,800/DK $5,700)
Has 18 targets over past two games, both of which have resulted in 20-plus PPR outings. Jacksonville’s secondary has been torched three straight games — giving up 28 percent more than league average to WRs in that span.
Jayden Reed WR, Packers, vs. Buccaneers (FD $6,100/DK $4,900)
With Christian Watson expected out again, Reed should maintain his lead role, assuming he can play through an ankle issue. Faces a Bucs pass defense that ranks fifth-worst in the league, and probably is only that good because of a soft schedule.
Dalton Schultz TE, Texans, at Titans (FD $6,000/DK $4,900)
Tank Dell out, Nico Collins missing practices, Noah Brown limited during the week. Even if C.J. Stroud (concussion protocol) doesn’t play, Schultz is still in line for a healthy dose of work.
Small Weeks
Travis Etienne Jr. RB, Jaguars, vs. Ravens (FD $8,000/DK $6,800)
Questionable with a rib issue. If he plays, it is hard to sit him, but if you happen you have a decent alternative, facing the stiff Ravens with a gimpy Trevor Lawrence while Etienne himself isn’t 100 percent is not ideal.
Kenneth Walker III RB, Seahawks, vs. Eagles (FD $6,400/DK $6,200)
If his new committee situation with Zach Charbonnet wasn’t enough bad news, he draws what will be an angry Eagles team that ranks fourth-stingiest against opposing RBs.
Tyreek Hill WR, Dolphins, vs. Jets (FD $10,200/DK $9,900)
Like Etienne, hard to sit if he plays, but worth considering if the right option available. Was limited by an ankle injured suffered Monday night. If he plays, he likely won’t be as explosive, while facing the toughest defense in the league vs. receivers.
Drake London WR, Falcons, at Panthers (FD $6,600/DK $5,400)
Carolina is pretty bad at everything, but one thing they have been pretty good at is limiting fantasy production of opposing WRs. Don’t expect London to repeat his monster Week 14 output.
Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (10 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $15K
Pot: $150K
Drew’s Crew
QB: Sam Howell
Was (at LAR) $6,300
RB: Kyren Williams
LAR (vs. Was) $7,500
RB: Tyler Allgeier
Atl (at Car) $4,400
WR: Khalil Shakir
Buf (vs. Dal) $3,800
WR: CeeDee Lamb
Dal (at Buf) $9,200
WR: Terry McLaurin
Was (at LAR) $5,600
TE: David Njoku
Cle (vs. Chi) $4,700
Flex: Garrett Wilson
NYJ (at Mia) $5,800
DST: Jets
NYJ (at Mia) $2,500
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Brock Purdy
SF (at Ari) $6,800
RB: Christian McCaffrey
SF (at Ari) $9,300
RB: Bijan Robinson
Atl (at Car) $6,800
WR: Garrett Wilson
NYJ (at Mia) $5,800
WR: Curtis Samuel
Was (at LAR) $4,600
WR: Jayden Reed
GB (vs. TB) $4,900
TE: Tucker Kraft
GB (vs. TB) $3,000
Flex: Rashee Rice
KC (at NE) $6,100
DST: Jets
NYJ (at Mia) $2,500
For late changes to
Daily Duel rosters, follow
@NYPost_Loftis on X
Season risked: $130.44
Season’s winnings: Drew $88, Jarad $19
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