The Colorado Buffaloes are among the toughest teams to project this college football season.
Admittedly, I have low expectations for this crew, as I wrote about for the New York Post earlier this month.
One of the biggest reasons I’ll continue to fade Colorado in the betting markets (for now) is the amount of public love the Buffaloes are getting.
Despite the many unknowns on the roster, I figure the Buffaloes are overvalued.
However the season shakes out, the Buffaloes will be fun to watch. I’m fascinated to see how Coach Prime and this entirely new roster compete.
A guy I’ll be watching closely is new offensive coordinator Sean Lewis, hired from Kent State.
Colorado vs. TCU prediction
(Noon. ET Saturday, FOX)
Lewis ran the “Flash Fast” offense at Kent State, with the Golden Flashes running at one of the fastest tempos in the country.
Under Lewis, the Flashes ran 75 plays per game at 21.7 seconds per play.
I expect the same thing from Colorado this season.
The Buffaloes should play at a lightning-fast pace.
Meanwhile, we should expect a faster pace for Colorado’s opponent, TCU.
Kendall Briles is the new offensive coordinator, coming to TCU from Arkansas.
While former coordinator Garrett Riley runs his offense at 27 seconds per play, Briles runs his offense at 23.5 seconds, a significant jump.
TCU was 22nd in possessions per game last season, at 12.9.
The Horned Frogs will play faster and generate even more possessions this season.
So, I expect a quick-paced, high-flying, flashy game between these two squads.
So, I’m looking to bet the over.
But can either team capitalize on their fast pace with points? Can either offense be efficient with pace?
Let’s start with Colorado.
The cupboard is not empty in Boulder.
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders (Deion’s son) won the Jerry Rice award as the top freshman in FCS last season, with Jackson State averaging over 450 yards per game.
He projects as a competent FBS quarterback.
He’ll have two interesting wide receivers to throw to in South Florida transfers Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn Jr., who combined for 90 receptions and 1,269 yards last season while averaging over two yards per route run (2.0 yards per route run or more is considered explosive).
Hopefully, Sanders, Weaver and Horn will take advantage of TCU’s overly aggressive defense.
The Horned Frogs have a solid secondary, but defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie encourages aggressiveness.
The Frogs love to jump routes, which generates turnovers but allows explosive plays.
The Horned Frogs finished 103rd in Explosive Plays allowed last season, and I expect Lewis and co. to get behind TCU’s corners on some deep routes.
Besides, what can we reasonably expect from TCU’s defense this season?
They return seven starters but lost their best player at each level (defensive lineman Dylan Horton, linebacker Dee Winters, cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson).
Four of the top seven defensive linemen are gone, too.
TCU allowed over 400 yards per game and 30 points per game last season, and I can’t imagine they’ll get better.
As for TCU’s offense, we should expect regression. The unit returns only three starters.
But I wouldn’t totally overlook the unit.
Quarterback Chandler Morris beat out Duggan for the starting job last season, so he has talent.
Plus, Sonny Dykes added some blue-chip recruits in the transfer portal, including running back Trey Sanders and wide receiver Jojo Earle from Alabama.
The thing about Lewis’ Flash Fast offense is that it doesn’t work when you’re undermanned, as you give so many extra possessions to the opponent.
Betting on College Football?
I consider Colorado undermanned, given the Buffaloes are working with an entirely new roster. It’ll be tough to build chemistry and cohesion in the early season.
The Buffs will let games slip away because of how fast-paced those tilts will be.
That likely happens to Colorado in Week 1, at least defensively. I expect Briles, Morris and the TCU offense to put up points with how many possessions they’ll be awarded.
Ultimately, I’m projecting a high-scoring affair between Colorado and TCU in Week 1. Look for Lewis and Briles to push the pace while both defenses struggle to prevent points while trying to defend so many possessions.
We could see 30 possessions and 70 points in this game. I’ll take the over at anything better than 64.5 (-110).
Colorado vs. TCU Pick
Over 63.5 (-110) at BetMGM | Play to over 64.5 (-110)
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