It’s hard to believe, but by the end of this week, the NBA season will be five weeks in and most teams will have played a fifth of their schedule.
This is as good of a reflection point as any to look at NBA futures.
The top four preseason favorites to win it all remain at the top after the first month, but value is starting to be created on two teams that have battled injuries and are incorporating new faces.
Bucks (+450, BetMGM)
A preseason co-favorite with Boston to win it all at +400, Milwaukee is showing some growing pains with the addition of Damian Lillard and coach Adrian Griffin, even though the team has won its last five games.
The Big 3 have rarely played together in the early going, with Khris Middleton on a strict minutes count and the other two getting regular rest on back-to-backs.
But you can see it slowly coming together on the court with glimpses of what it could look like in the playoffs.
Lillard can take over games, and he has no qualms about doing so on his new team, even when he’s on the court late in games with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has often deferred to Lillard in game-deciding moments.
The pick-and-roll between the two stars is a work in progress, but there’s improvement and new wrinkles added each game.
These early games are glorified practices for them.
Immediately after the Lillard trade in late September, the Bucks were listed as the title favorite at +360.
Barring a crippling injury, their current +450 pricing isn’t likely to go much lower.
This is a rocket ship built for April.
Suns (+750, DraftKings)
Much like the Bucks, the Suns are having to experiment on a nightly basis with a new coach, new lineups and injuries. The team’s Big 3 have yet to all play together.
Offseason trade acquisition Bradley Beal has only played three games and will miss at least the next three weeks with a lower back strain. And Devin Booker has only played in five of the Suns’ first 13 games.
MVP-worthy play by Kevin Durant has held Phoenix together.
He’s averaging a career high in points (31.4) and is above his career averages in assists (5.5), rebounds (7.2) and 3-point percentage (49.2).
In his 17th NBA season, he’s also averaging more minutes (37.2) than he’s had in more than a decade.
That might not be sustainable for a 35-year-old who hasn’t played more than 55 games in any season since 2018-19.
Because of all the key injuries Frank Vogel has had to deal with in his first year in Phoenix, it’s difficult to see how everything will mesh once Beal gets back.
But it’s clear to see with their decision to shut Beal down for three weeks that the Suns are playing the long game.
The Suns opened the season at +650 to win the title. Take advantage of the current discount before they are at full health.
Betting on the NBA?
Bonus long shot: Timberwolves (30/1, DraftKings)
If you’re looking to sprinkle a long shot, look no further than the Minnesota Timberwolves. who were 33/1 before the season tipped off and are now at 30/1.
They, too, have a legitimate Big 3 in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Ruby Gobert, with a nice supporting cast that has helped Minnesota get off to a 10-3 start, best in the West and a game behind Boston for best record in the league.
They have already taken down the Nuggets, Celtics, and Warriors (twice), and currently own the NBA’s second-best defensive rating and the sixth-best net rating.
Edwards, after leading the U.S. national team in scoring over the summer in the FIBA World Cup, has emerged as an on- and off-court leader.
They’ll go as far as he takes them, and right now that seems a lot further than most thought going into the season.
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