The second to last UFC Fight Night of the year kicks off at the APEX Center for UFC Vegas 83 with headliner Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez.
It’s been a tough go at it for picks of late, a far cry from where we started the year.
The cold streak brings us down near the Mendoza line for profitability this year despite being up nearly 40 units at different points in 2023.
We look to grab our dignity back when we make UFC Vegas 83 picks this weekend, with plenty of lower-level MMA to pick off value plays.
The card is slated to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UFC Vegas 83 picks and predictions
Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez
It might be unfair to say this, but Song Yadong as a -410 favorite seems like insanity when looking at it with the naked eye. Is anyone betting on that moneyline?
Thanks to the Cory Sandhagan fight, we know that Yadong is hittable, and he takes it well, which helps. But Yadong really only has the power upside and debatable striking volume advantage.
Gutierrez is just a leg-kicking machine and not much else. Yadong has solid movement on the feet around the cage so Gutierrez would need to land kicks in order to cut that off.
There’s next to no betting value here, thanks to a heavily inflated line.
There probably is value on Guterrez’s moneyline, expect him to close around +250. The only method of victory with value is on Yadong by submission +1150 on BetRivers Sportsbook.
Small bets only.
Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
On short notice, Anthony “Lionheart” Smith steps in to face Khalil Rountree Jr. at the light heavyweight division.
Smith opened as a -200 favorite but has since flipped and he is now a +200 underdog. Is this the end for Lionheart?
Certainly possible, Rountree hits like a truck and as fighters get older, their durability begins to wane.
But his nickname is Lionheart and he has not been finished in the first round since 2013.
The same can be said for Rountree, who hasn’t gone down in round one since 2019 (five fights). Smith is also far from a first-round finisher.
Smith’s best shot at victory is grappling and submission. But good luck not getting KO’d in the process.
Expect a slower-moving fight to hit round two at -142 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Kenan Song vs. Kevin Jousset
You may remember that Kenan Song was the fighter that Ian Garry knocked out in the third round earlier this year. But don’t let that get you down too bad.
Song is a fighter who loves to stand and bang, showcased by actually landing a knockdown on Garry in that fight.
His opponent, Kevin Jousset did not impress much in his first fight aside from getting a takedown and a quick submission win against Kiefer Crosbie — a fighter that probably wouldn’t be in the UFC if he wasn’t friends with Conor McGregor.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Jousset looked hittable in that fight, leaving this as a very important fight for him to grapple. This is low-level MMA, so be careful whenever betting these high-variance endeavors.
However, this one going the distance would be shocking. Bet it not go the distance at -150 on FanDuel with a fair value around -185.
Song by KO/TKO is +400 on FanDuel as well, a fine bet this fight is ending in a hurry.
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