Washington Commanders predictions, win total pick

Remember Sam Howell? 

He’s the former North Carolina quarterback who threw for over 10,000 yards and 90 touchdowns over three years in Chapel Hill.

He was selected in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL draft.

Well, that guy was just named QB1 for the Washington Commanders in the upcoming season. 

It was widely thought that Howell would win the job, as new owner Josh Harris, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and returning head coach Ron Rivera wanted to usher in a new era.

Although he may have earned the starting job, Howell was electric in preseason action. 

Given the news, it was a good time to look at the state of the Washington Commanders in the betting markets. 

How’s the roster shaping up? Are they overvalued or undervalued by Vegas? 

Washington Commanders Betting Odds

Here’s where the Commanders stand in the major futures markets, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Washington is widely picked to finish last in the NFC East, and they’re as high as 80-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at some books. 

Here’s where Howell stands in the major futures markets, also courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Oddsmakers are giving the Commanders no shot of making noise this year. 

What do we think? 

Washington Commanders picks

It sounds counterintuitive, but it might not matter what happens on the field this year in Washington.

Fans are so happy to be done with the Dan Snyder era, and they’re just looking to move on. 

That said, the future is surprisingly bright in DC. Fans should be excited about the team. 

The Commanders have a great young core. 

On offense, the wide receiver trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel will produce explosive plays for years.

On defense, the Commanders boast a quartet of former first-round picks on the defensive line: Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. 

First-round pick cornerback Emmanuel Forbes provides young upside in the secondary, and he’s a real ballhawk. He and veteran Kendall Fuller could form a dangerous pass-defense duo. 

Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s squad boasted the third-best total defense in the league (304.6 yards per game allowed), and they finished ninth in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. 

Any improvements upon those numbers would place Washington’s defense among the NFL’s best. 

The key for Washington this year will be on offense – how quickly could this unit click? 

Bringing in Bieniemy was one of the best coordinator hires any team made in the offseason.

The offenses he built in Kansas City were incredible, although having Patrick Mahomes makes any coach’s job easy. 

Bieniemy will tread lightly with Howell.

Expect Washington to run a lot of run-pass options with short and intermediate throws, leaning on the young wide receiver trio and the running back duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. 

The Commanders brought in two veteran offensive linemen during free agency, Andrew Wylie and Nick Gates, so line play should improve. Protecting Howell will be key to his development. 

On paper, Howell has the support staff needed to be an average-to-quality quarterback, but can he reward the team’s faith?

It’s a lot of pressure for a first-year quarterback with a new offensive coordinator, especially when he has only 19 NFL pass attempts.

Remember, Howell was pegged as a future first-round pick after his sophomore year. Injuries plagued North Carolina in his junior year, destroying his production and ruining his draft stock. 

Howell has a first-round pick upside.

However, his athleticism could save him. He ran for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns in his final season with the Tar Heels. 

I don’t think Howell and the offense break out enough to make this team a true contender, especially in Bieniemy’s first season. 

However, the defense gives this team an extremely high floor, and the offense projects to improve as the season progresses. 

The schedule is tough, but the Commanders got lucky in the schedule-making lottery, as they have the most net rest days in the NFL (+12). 

So, why not take a shot with the win total? 

Aaron Schatz’s DVOA projections peg Washington for 7.6 wins in the upcoming season, which places some value on the Over 6.5 Wins available in the market. 

If the Commanders lean on their defense while Bienemy builds an offense that protects Howell’s inexperience – RPO and option calls focusing on short-to-intermediate gains – I could see this team grinding out seven wins. Bienemy will have the extra rest to design optimal game plans weekly. 

If I’m wrong, expect more upheaval in the offseason.

Rivera likely will be fired, and the team will move on with Bienemy as the future head coach. 

The play: Washington Commanders Over 6.5 (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook