Another week of football comes at us with a loaded day of football. Week 14 NFL player props are vast, akin to a jungle.
But when swinging from game to game, we’ve emerged from the jungle with gems.
A few long shots could tickle your fancy ahead of Week 14.
Last week was another phenomenal week.
A 3-2 Sunday profited 4.015 units, getting us a solid 34.745 total profit.
Our record now sits at 30-36 (45.45 percent) but these are mostly long shots.
Our Return on Investment (ROI) on player props is substantially better than what you can expect from most handicappers, coming in at 52.64 percent.
Below we continue with more Week 14 NFL player prop bets, picks, and best bets. Buckle up.
Week 14 NFL player props and picks
Zach Wilson over 185.5 passing yards -114 | 275+ +800 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
An excellent line here on the return of the king. Zach Wilson is thrust back into the starting lineup, potentially against his will, but he has a phenomenal matchup in front of him in the Houston Texans.
Houston’s defense ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass. Here are the passing numbers they’ve allowed in recent weeks.
- Week 13 vs. Russell Wilson – 186 yards 1 TD 3 INTs
- Week 12 vs. Trevor Lawrence – 364 yards 3 TDs (two rushing) 1 INT
- Week 11 vs. Kyler Murray – 214 yards 1 TD 1 INT
- Week 10 vs. Joe Burrow 347 yards 2 TDs 2 INTs
- Week 9 vs. Baker Mayfield 265 yards 2 TDs
- Week 8 vs. Bryce Young 235 yards 1 TD
Look, Wilson isn’t a world-beater, but he is better than Bryce Young. Houston is allowing the fourth-most passing yards per attempt in the NFL (7.2 yards per attempt!) behind only the Commanders, Bengals and Broncos, who have rapidly improved their play.
This is a smash and the best bet of the weekend. Grab the ladder at exorbitant prices. Every quarterback since Week 6 has cleared this number against the Texans and Wilson has beaten this number in six of his last seven.
Cole Kmet over 31.5 receiving yards -110 | 75+ receiving yards +925 (Bet365)
Developing as the No. 2 weapon in Justin Fields’ offense, Cole Kmet has cleared the smaller part of his receiving number in 8 of 11 games this season, including four of his last five.
Interestingly enough, Kmet has cleared 75 passing yards in two games this season, giving us some solid equity; he’s done it before.
The Lions are very stingy against opposing tight ends, and Kmet only caught three of his four targets for 20 yards in Week 11 when they played; that is presumably why his number is so low.
Betting on the NFL?
It could be that the Lions are world-beaters against opposing tight ends, but earlier in the season they allowed 132 yards to the Seahawks’ poor duo of Noah Fant and Will Dissly.
Hit Kmet to go over this weekend.
Zay Flowers over 45.5 receiving yards +105 | 90+ +1000 (DraftKings)
A value spot for Sunday as Zay Flowers had two weeks to prepare for the Rams. The rookie should be heavily involved as coach John Harbaugh schemes him deeper into the game plan.
Flowers began to boom just before the break against the Chargers, scoring two touchdowns, including a 37-yard run for a touchdown.
Jet-sweeps are a slight concern for his receiving over, he hasn’t beaten this projection in two weeks and once in his previous five.
But there’s still optimism that the electric receiver can explode despite his underneath route numbers. For starters Pro Football Focus absolutely hates the Rams’ secondary, giving them third-lowest grade in the NFL despite numbers that would show them as a league-average group.
Flowers lines up in the slot about half the time, which could spell death for the Rams’ secondary. The Rams struggle against opposing slot receivers.
As we know, he’s one big play away from cashing this over in one play.
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