In the fifth of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season, Fantasy Insanity discusses wide receivers. Next week: early season strategy.
Changing teams can often change a player’s fortunes — for good or bad. One position that shouldn’t conjure many fears, however, is wide receiver.
The list of wideouts who have taken their talents to new spots and succeeded is a long one: Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, etc. Just last year, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown all had exceptional seasons on new teams.
So there is no reason to worry about guys who made moves this offseason, right? Well … let’s just say there are some who come with legitimate concerns, completely unrelated to their changing uniforms.
First, Hopkins is on the move again. He was a hit as soon as he arrived in Arizona from Houston, despite taking a step down in quarterback from Deshaun Watson to Kyler Murray. Now, he is downgrading again, to some likely combination of Ryan Over-the-Tannehill, rookie Will Levis or second-year project Malik Willis with Tennessee.
That will cause many to worry. But recall that Hopkins posted top-tier fantasy number in Houston with shoddy QB play before Watson arrived. RB Derrick Henry at least gives the Titans’ offense a threat beyond just Hopkins, which the Cardinals did not have.
Fantasy Football DVQ Explainer
Hop out of the pool, unpack your vacation suitcase, boot up your laptop and get ready, because fantasy football season is back.
The Fantasy Madman has returned with the latest iteration of his DVQ.
The Draft Value Quotient is a player rating system that assigns one universal number for every player. This value projects the point in the draft at which a player’s projected production will match the estimated draft pick value.
Since there is a wider separation among production at the top, so too is there a wider gap between DVQ values at the top of the rankings.
The player projections takes into account playing time, expected use/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance and injury history. The DVQ measures these projections against a player’s schedule and factors in positional depth and value above replacement.
These ratings are updated regularly.
He won’t be the sole focus, which will help him inch back toward his youthful numbers. Expect something better than the past two seasons, even if well short of his prime. We can live with that in the fifth round.
Then you have Calvin Ridley. The 28-year-old has barely been on the field the past two seasons — first due to a foot injury, then due to a gambling ban. But he is healthy for the first time since early in the 2020 season.
He landed on a Jaguars team we think is going to be good and an offense that will be dangerous. But two years is a lot of rust to shake off.
Expect a slow start, but we think he is going to start lighting up later in the year. Others seem to be high on him too, because he is frequently now creeping into the fourth round.
Odell Beckham Jr. was a bust after going from the Giants to the Browns, then looked like a hit, briefly, after landing with the Rams. Out last year after a knee injury in Super Bowl LVI, he is returning this season with the Ravens.
The switch from Matthew Stafford as his QB to Lamar Jackson is likely a small fantasy downgrade in a vacuum. New Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken, however, is expected to lean more heavily on the pass than Baltimore has in seasons past. If you consider all of that a wash, it comes down to what Odell has left in terms of ability.
Last we saw him, he was on the way to a Super Bowl MVP before his injury. He has had plenty of time to recover and should be fully healthy. And he is just 30, even though it seems as if he has been around forever. For a 10th-round fantasy pick, we love that potential upside.
And then there is DJ Moore. The explosive 26-year-old could be unleashed in a Bears offense with Justin Fields at QB. We have seen glimpses of that during the preseason. We like his upside, but you’re not getting a bargain in the fourth round. Sometimes, you just have to pay full price.
So the Madman is jumping on board the Journeyman Wide Receiver Train. Heck, we might as well be the conductor.
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