The 2023 Women’s World Cup has reached the knockout stage and the story coming out of the round robin is that we have more surprise teams in the Round of 16 (Nigeria, South Africa and Jamaica) than we expected.
It’s always fun when gatecrashers surprise their way into the knockout rounds of an international tournament.
Not only because everybody loves an underdog story, but also because it usually leads to an imbalanced draw, which in turns leads to new opportunities to find some betting value.
So now that the dust has settled and we know how every team’s path to the trophy, we can find some value in both the next round and beyond.
Japan vs. Norway pick
Norway came into the 2023 World Cup with tempered expectations.
The Football Ferns were expected to cruise in Group A but that was mostly because of a favorable draw that saw them land in the same set as New Zealand, Switzerland and the Philippines.
But cold water was quickly thrown on Norway’s chances when they were upset by New Zealand in the tournament’s very first match.
A nil-nil draw against Switzerland didn’t do much to bolster the market’s confidence in the Scandinavian side.
But Norway would eventually find its way through to the Round of 16 thanks to a 6-0 win over the Philippines and because New Zealand could only muster up one more point against Switzerland and the Philippines.
Nonetheless, Norway is still alive and could be a dark horse among the remaining 16 teams.
While a matchup with Japan, which went 3-0-0 and didn’t concede a goal in the group stage, seems like a tough way to start the elimination portion of the tournament, this is not a David vs. Goliath situation.
In fact, these two teams were basically viewed as peers according to the FIFA World Rankings (Japan is No. 11 and Norway is No. 12) and had these two teams met a few weeks ago, these odds — which currently read Japan -280 to advance and Norway +220 — would look a lot different.
But Japan’s terrific display in the group stage has seen them rightfully inspire a lot of confidence in the betting market and that is leading to them being overvalued against Norway.
And if you’re going to bet on Norway getting past Japan, you may as well take a nibble on the Football Ferns to win the trophy.
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A win over Japan would likely mean that Norway has found its form ahead of a quarterfinal showdown against either the United States or Sweden.
Norway would be a significant underdog in either of those matches, but the USWNT has looked beatable through three matches, while Sweden isn’t considered one of the dominant forces in this field.
The Swedes are +2200 to win the tournament at the time of writing.
It would take a big effort for Norway to fight its way to the semifinals, but the path is somewhat feasible for a strong team at a big number.
The bets: Norway to advance +220 | Norway to win the World Cup +6500 (FanDuel)
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