A few items to keep in mind about Cody Bellinger, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto:
None of their teams made the playoffs in 2023. All of their managers left at the end of the season — two firings, one pushed out the door.
The teams’ failures were not their faults. But it is a reminder that most clubs are not one great player from success — and I would currently project the Yankees in that category. Generally, if you are going to spend what these players are going to cost in dollars and/or prospects, then you a) better be positive about these players, and b) be able to make a strong case that one of them is going to markedly increase championship odds.
Maybe the Yankees believe they are going to have an offseason like 2008-09 — when after missing the playoffs following a 13-year postseason run, the Yankees invested $423.5 million to land A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixiera. The Yankees just had a six-year playoff run end, and will they react by, say, trading for Soto and signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Hicks and Kevin Kiermaier?
In the first case, they were opening a new stadium and augmenting a roster that had the Core Four plus Robinson Cano, Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez and David Robertson.
In this case, the Yankees would be building around what? Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge and — if they are being fairly self-critical — the worst dollar-for-dollar offense in major league history in 2023, a continuing inability to develop especially positional prospects for sustained major league success, and an extended period in which they have ranked poorly in athleticism and keeping players healthy.
Should a team built on that shaky bedrock spend the money/prospects to change the conversation?
Despite all the noise that Hal Steinbrenner is cheap, he does tend to spend large (and often horribly) when criticism creeps too close to him. When Cano left after the 2013 season, Steinbrenner authorized a $438 million spree that most positively included Masahiro Tanaka and most negatively included Jacoby Ellsbury. When the Yankees were swept out of the ALCS last year by the Astros, Steinbrenner approved the 11th-largest contract ever for a pitcher ($162 million) for Carlos Rodon.
Apparently, the Yankees used the Rougned Odor Investigative Firm to look into the makeup of Ellsbury and Rodon before guaranteeing them a combined $315 million.
This is not meant as a way to save the Steinbrenners money. Heck, for example, if they’d like advice on how to spend $98 million well to help the 2024-27 team, then just eat the rest of Giancarlo Stanton’s contract and improve roster construction 100 percent.
Instead, Steinbrenner has to be careful he is not problem-solving by layering on expensive bad money on top of expensive bad money — furthermore to be known as a Rodon.
Because for the Yankees to make the kind of investment in one star or a few, wouldn’t they have to believe most (if not all) of the following: Jasson Dominguez/Anthony Volpe/Austin Wells are going to approach being impact players, DJ LeMahieu’s strong last two months of 2023 are replicable, Anthony Rizzo has no lingering concussion effects, Nestor Cortes and Rodon are closer to 2022 (combined 2.68 ERA, 336 ¹/₃ innings) than 2023 (5.92, 127 ²/₃), and the team is going to have far better health results than the home office for the brittle and infirmed they have been in recent years.
Dishonorable mentions: Some rebound is possible for Giancarlo Stanton, Michael King can be counted upon as a full-time starter and a trustworthy lefty reliever will emerge.
Want to keep going? The real Oswaldo Cabrera is 2022 not 2023; the health of relievers Scott Effross, Ian Hamilton, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga and perhaps Lou Trivino will be excellent; and Jose Trevino will make it all the way back from wrist surgery.
And the criticism already was hot even before Steinbrenner’s bumbling press conference last week during the GM Meetings. Carrot Top doing Shakespeare would not have been panned as much.
How much of all of that do you believe will go positively for the Yankees in 2024? Take off any pinstriped-colored glasses before responding. How much of what doesn’t go well can be covered up by just throwing more money at the problem if the firmament of the roster connects one worrisome issue to the next?
The Yankees nevertheless seem determined to change the vibe, the narrative and their 2023 results. Historically with the tandem of Steinbrenner-Cashman that has meant the Yankees are just about to flash their wallet. After the 2008 season, that was understandable and defendable.
Is it now?
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